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Population and development redux

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  • Javier Birchenall

Abstract

The effects of population growth on long-term economic development are obviously important. This paper introduces new predictions from a general Malthus-Boserup model of population growth and ideas-based technological change. It also tests these predictions using numerous data sources, empirical specifications, and sample periods. Time series tests reveal that the empirical associations that hold true in the modern era are completely reversed in pre-modern samples. Inferences drawn from the pre-modern population growth of geographically isolated populations are also reversed when relevant controls are taken into account. While there is a clear break with Malthusian theory, in general, and especially outside of the modern era, there is no unequivocal evidence supporting Boserupian views. An alternative model consistent with transitional demographic patterns is briefly discussed. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Birchenall, 2016. "Population and development redux," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 627-656, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:29:y:2016:i:2:p:627-656
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-015-0572-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Evelyn Nwamaka Ogbeide-Osaretin & Bright Orhewere, 2020. "Population Growth, Gender Inequality and Economic Development in Nigeria," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 1, pages 47-64.
    2. Yazhu Wang & Hui Zou & Xuejun Duan & Lingqing Wang, 2022. "Coordinated Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population and Economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-19, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population growth; Technological change; Malthus and Boserup; J10; O40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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