Technological speciation: Navigating new needs through trial and error – A rifle case study

Technological speciation is a crucial concept for understanding the emergence of new technologies, describing how existing technologies adapt to novel application domains in response to emerging market needs. Prior research has primarily utilized case-centered qualitative approaches. While some quantitative studies have been conducted, they have not fully captured the complexity of technological speciation, with the methodologies used for observation also falling short. This study aims to enhance previous discussions by rigorously validating the process of technological speciation, focusing on Levinthal (1998) through empirical evidence, and uncovering the managerial strategic implications observable in the speciation process of emerging technologies. This study emphasizes products as intermediaries between markets and technologies, developing indicators based on the similarity between antecedent and descendant technologies, considering the path dependency of technology, and applying these to actual product data. It hypothesizes that significant changes at the inception of these indicators mark the beginning of technological speciation. Analysis reveals that new technologies emerge through an adaptive process, systematically addressing needs through trial and error, with shifts in needs serving as the catalyst. This aligns with detailed discussions in existing qualitative studies on the technological speciation process. This study proposes an analytical method for examining technological speciation by exploring the interaction between markets and technologies from an evolutionary perspective, using product data as a mediator. Additionally, the study highlights the importance for companies aiming to enter new markets of accurately identifying new needs, exploring adjacent technologies, and adopting iterative, small-scale productization strategies to navigate the adaptation process effectively.