IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormksc/v30y2011i2p339-354.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demystifying Disruption: A New Model for Understanding and Predicting Disruptive Technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Ashish Sood

    (Goizueta School of Business, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia 30322)

  • Gerard J. Tellis

    (Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089)

Abstract

The failure of firms in the face of technological change has been a topic of intense research and debate, spawning the theory (among others) of disruptive technologies. However, the theory suffers from circular definitions, inadequate empirical evidence, and lack of a predictive model. We develop a new schema to address these limitations. The schema generates seven hypotheses and a testable model relating to platform technologies. We test this model and hypotheses with data on 36 technologies from seven markets. Contrary to extant theory, technologies that adopt a lower attack ("potentially disruptive technologies") (1) are introduced as frequently by incumbents as by entrants, (2) are not cheaper than older technologies, and (3) rarely disrupt firms; and (4) both entrants and lower attacks significantly reduce the hazard of disruption. Moreover, technology disruption is not permanent because of multiple crossings in technology performance and numerous rival technologies coexisting without one disrupting the other. The proposed predictive model of disruption shows good out-of-sample predictive accuracy. We discuss the implications of these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashish Sood & Gerard J. Tellis, 2011. "Demystifying Disruption: A New Model for Understanding and Predicting Disruptive Technologies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 339-354, 03-04.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:339-354
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1100.0617
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1100.0617
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mksc.1100.0617?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
    2. Christensen, Clayton M. & Rosenbloom, Richard S., 1995. "Explaining the attacker's advantage: Technological paradigms, organizational dynamics, and the value network," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 233-257, March.
    3. David A. Schweidel & Peter S. Fader & Eric T. Bradlow, 2008. "A Bivariate Timing Model of Customer Acquisition and Retention," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 829-843, 09-10.
    4. Mokyr, Joel, 1990. "Punctuated Equilibria and Technological Progress," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 350-354, May.
    5. Zoltan J. Acs & David B. Audretsch, 2008. "Innovation in Large and Small Firms: An Empirical Analysis," Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy, chapter 1, pages 3-15, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Levinthal, Daniel A, 1998. "The Slow Pace of Rapid Technological Change: Gradualism and Punctuation in Technological Change," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 7(2), pages 217-247, June.
    7. Rebecca Henderson, 1993. "Underinvestment and Incompetence as Responses to Radical Innovation: Evidence from the Photolithographic Alignment Equipment Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(2), pages 248-270, Summer.
    8. Andrew A. King & Christopher L. Tucci, 2002. "Incumbent Entry into New Market Niches: The Role of Experience and Managerial Choice in the Creation of Dynamic Capabilities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(2), pages 171-186, February.
    9. Rothaermel, Frank T., 2001. "Complementary assets, strategic alliances, and the incumbent's advantage: an empirical study of industry and firm effects in the biopharmaceutical industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1235-1251, October.
    10. Ashish Sood & Gareth M. James & Gerard J. Tellis, 2009. "Functional Regression: A New Model for Predicting Market Penetration of New Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 36-51, 01-02.
    11. Mary Tripsas, 1997. "Unraveling The Process Of Creative Destruction: Complementary Assets And Incumbent Survival In The Typesetter Industry," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(S1), pages 119-142, July.
    12. James M. Utterback & Happy J. Acee, 2005. "Disruptive Technologies: An Expanded View," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-17.
    13. Frank T. Rothaermel & Charles W. L. Hill, 2005. "Technological Discontinuities and Complementary Assets: A Longitudinal Study of Industry and Firm Performance," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 52-70, February.
    14. Pankaj Ghemawat, 1991. "Market Incumbency and Technological Inertia," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 161-171.
    15. Lillard, Lee A., 1993. "Simultaneous equations for hazards : Marriage duration and fertility timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 189-217, March.
    16. Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 1997. "Will It Every Fly? Modeling the Takeoff of Really New Consumer Durables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 256-270.
    17. Ashish Sood & Gerard J. Tellis, 2009. "Do Innovations Really Pay Off? Total Stock Market Returns to Innovation," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 442-456, 05-06.
    18. Ron Adner & Peter Zemsky, 2005. "Disruptive Technologies and the Emergence of Competition," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(2), pages 229-254, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sanderson, Susan Walsh & Simons, Kenneth L., 2014. "Light emitting diodes and the lighting revolution: The emergence of a solid-state lighting industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(10), pages 1730-1746.
    2. Mary Tripsas, 2008. "Customer preference discontinuities: a trigger for radical technological change," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2-3), pages 79-97.
    3. Ron Adner & Rahul Kapoor, 2016. "Innovation ecosystems and the pace of substitution: Re-examining technology S-curves," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 625-648, April.
    4. Jonathan D. Bohlmann & Michael A. Stanko & Jelena Spanjol, 2024. "Incumbent inertia, innovativeness, and performance (dis)advantages: A demand-side learning perspective," AMS Review, Springer;Academy of Marketing Science, vol. 14(1), pages 122-142, June.
    5. Dahlin, Kristina B. & Behrens, Dean M., 2005. "When is an invention really radical?: Defining and measuring technological radicalness," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 717-737, June.
    6. Cohen, Wesley M., 2010. "Fifty Years of Empirical Studies of Innovative Activity and Performance," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 129-213, Elsevier.
    7. JP Eggers & Michal Grajek & Tobias Kretschmer, 2011. "Performance implications of core and complementary pre-entry experience: The role of consumer heterogeneity in mobile telephony," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-11-03 (R2), ESMT European School of Management and Technology, revised 29 May 2012.
    8. Markus Reisinger & Jens Schmidt & Nils Stieglitz, 2021. "How Complementors Benefit from Taking Competition to the System Level," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5106-5123, August.
    9. J. P. Eggers & Michał Grajek & Tobias Kretschmer, 2020. "Experience, Consumers, and Fit: Disentangling Performance Implications of Preentry Technological and Market Experience in 2G Mobile Telephony," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 245-265, March.
    10. Giovanni. Gavetti & Daniel A. Levinthal, 2004. "50th Anniversay Article: The Strategy Field from the Perspective of Management Science: Divergent Strands and Possible Integration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(10), pages 1309-1318, October.
    11. Yoon, Jungsub & Lee, Jeong-Dong & Hwang, Seogwon, 2022. "Episodic change: A new approach to identifying industrial transition," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Li, Xu, 2024. "When firms may benefit from sticking with an old technology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120131, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Di Stefano, Giada & Gambardella, Alfonso & Verona, Gianmario, 2012. "Technology push and demand pull perspectives in innovation studies: Current findings and future research directions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1283-1295.
    14. J. P. Eggers & Sarah Kaplan, 2009. "Cognition and Renewal: Comparing CEO and Organizational Effects on Incumbent Adaptation to Technical Change," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 461-477, April.
    15. Brian Wu & Zhixi Wan & Daniel A. Levinthal, 2014. "Complementary assets as pipes and prisms: Innovation incentives and trajectory choices," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9), pages 1257-1278, September.
    16. Schmidt, Arne & Walter, Sascha G. & Walter, Achim, 2010. "Contingency Factors and the Technology-Performance-Relationship in Start-ups," EconStor Preprints 37082, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. Ansari, Shahzad (Shaz) & Krop, Pieter, 2012. "Incumbent performance in the face of a radical innovation: Towards a framework for incumbent challenger dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1357-1374.
    18. Ufuk Akcigit & Murat Celik & Daron Acemoglu, 2014. "Young, Restless and Creative: Openness to Disruption and Creative Innovations," 2014 Meeting Papers 377, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Vikas A. Aggarwal & Hart E. Posen & Maciej Workiewicz, 2017. "Adaptive capacity to technological change: A microfoundational approach," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 1212-1231, June.
    20. Bruno Cassiman & Masako Ueda, 2006. "Optimal Project Rejection and New Firm Start-ups," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 262-275, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:339-354. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.