IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joevec/v26y2016i5d10.1007_s00191-016-0473-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Household debt and housing bubbles: a Minskian approach to boom-bust cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Soon Ryoo

    (Adelphi University)

Abstract

This paper examines macroeconomic dynamics of household debt and housing prices in a two-class economy. Drawing on Minsky’s insights into financial instability and cycles, our framework combines household debt dynamics with behavioral asset price dynamics in a Keynesian macro model. We show that endogenous boom-bust cycles can emerge through the interaction between household debt and housing price dynamics. In this model, a long period of housing bubbles is characterized by increases in the profit share and the workers’ indebtedness for most of the time. The long waves are combined with a Kaldorian model of short-run business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Soon Ryoo, 2016. "Household debt and housing bubbles: a Minskian approach to boom-bust cycles," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-1006, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:26:y:2016:i:5:d:10.1007_s00191-016-0473-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-016-0473-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00191-016-0473-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00191-016-0473-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lance Taylor & Stephen A. O'Connell, 1985. "A Minsky Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 871-885.
    2. Alan G. Isaac & Yun K. Kim, 2013. "Consumer and Corporate Debt: A Neo- K aleckian Synthesis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 244-271, May.
    3. Matthieu Charpe & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2009. "Overconsumption, credit rationing and bailout monetary policy: A Minskyan perspective," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 247-270.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    5. Thomas I. Palley, 1994. "Debt, Aggregate Demand, and The Business Cycle: an Analysis in the Spirit of Kaldor and Minsky," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 371-390, March.
    6. Asada, Toichiro & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Mouakil, Tarik & Proaño, Christian R., 2010. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: On the choice of proper policy measures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-43.
    7. Ryoo, Soon, 2010. "Long waves and short cycles in a model of endogenous financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 163-186, June.
    8. Peter Skott, 2015. "Growth cycles with or without price flexibility," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 374-386, July.
    9. Peter Skott, 2013. "Increasing Inequality and Financial Instability," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 478-488, December.
    10. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    11. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12814.
    12. Thomas I. Palley, 2013. "A Theory of Minsky Super-cycles and Financial Crises," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Financialization, chapter 8, pages 126-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. F. H. Hahn, 1951. "The Share Of Wages In The National Income," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 147-157.
    14. Steven M. Fazzari & Pietro E. Ferri & Edward G. Greenberg & Anna Maria Variato, 2013. "Aggregate demand, instability, and growth," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, January.
    15. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2006. "Maturity, Stagnation And Consumer Debt: A Steindlian Approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 339-364, July.
    16. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
    17. Rudiger von Arnim & Jose Barrales, 2015. "Demand-driven Goodwin cycles with Kaldorian and Kaleckian features," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 351-373, July.
    18. Thomas I. Palley, 2010. "Inside Debt and Economic Growth: A Neo-Kaleckian Analysis," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Peter Skott & Soon Ryoo, 2008. "Macroeconomic implications of financialisation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(6), pages 827-862, November.
    20. Foley, Duncan K., 1987. "Liquidity-profit rate cycles in a capitalist economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 363-376, September.
    21. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    22. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
    23. Nicholas Kaldor, 1966. "Marginal Productivity and the Macro-Economic Theories of Distribution: Comment on Samuelson and Modigliani," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 33(4), pages 309-319.
    24. Skott,Peter, 2008. "Conflict and Effective Demand in Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521066310, January.
    25. Fazzari, Steven & Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and Keynes-Minsky cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 555-572, March.
    26. Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The State of Macro," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 209-228, May.
    27. Chiarella, Carl & Di Guilmi, Corrado, 2011. "The financial instability hypothesis: A stochastic microfoundation framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1151-1171, August.
    28. Palley, Thomas I, 1996. "Inside Debt, Aggregate Demand, and the Cambridge Theory of Distribution," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 20(4), pages 465-474, July.
    29. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. "On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-248, May.
    30. Matthieu Charpe & Peter Flaschel & Christian R. Proaño, 2012. "Income Distribution, Credit Rationing And Households' Debt," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 458-492, July.
    31. Soon Ryoo, 2013. "Minsky cycles in Keynesian models of growth and distribution," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 37-60, January.
    32. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    33. Soon Ryoo, 2013. "The Paradox Of Debt And Minsky'S Financial Instability Hypothesis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 1-24, February.
    34. Soon Ryoo, 2013. "Bank profitability, leverage and financial instability: a Minsky–Harrod model," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(5), pages 1127-1160.
    35. Peter Skott*, 1981. "On The ‘Kaldorian’ Saving Function," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 563-581, November.
    36. repec:bla:kyklos:v:34:y:1981:i:4:p:563-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Hyman P. Minsky, 1995. "Longer Waves in Financial Relations: Financial Factors in the More Severe Depressions II," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 83-96, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soon Ryoo, 2013. "Minsky cycles in Keynesian models of growth and distribution," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 37-60, January.
    2. Soon Ryoo & Yun K. Kim, 2014. "Income Distribution, Consumer Debt and Keeping up with the Joneses," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 585-618, November.
    3. Soon Ryoo, 2016. "Inequality of Income and Wealth in the Long Run: A Kaldorian Perspective," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 429-457, May.
    4. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Maria Nikolaidi & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2017. "Minsky Models: A Structured Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1304-1331, December.
    5. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2017. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules in an Unstable Economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 500-548, July.
    6. Ryoo, Soon, 2010. "Long waves and short cycles in a model of endogenous financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 163-186, June.
    7. Leila E Davis & Joao Paulo A de Souza & Gonzalo Hernandez, 2019. "An empirical analysis of Minsky regimes in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(3), pages 541-583.
    8. Yun Kim & Soon Ryoo, 2013. "Income Distribution, Consumer Debt, and Keeping Up with the Joneses: a Kaldor-Minsky-Veblen Model," Working Papers 1302, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    9. Filippo Gusella & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2021. "Testing fundamentalist–momentum trader financial cycles: An empirical analysis via the Kalman filter," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 758-797, November.
    10. Maria Nikolaidi, 2017. "Three decades of modelling Minsky: what we have learned and the way forward," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 222-237, September.
    11. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    12. Ítalo Pedrosa & Dany Lang, 2018. "Heterogeneity, distribution and financial fragility of non-financial firms: an agent-based stock-flow consistent (AB-SFC) model," Working Papers hal-01937186, HAL.
    13. Michalis Nikiforos, 2015. "Uncertainty and Contradiction: An Essay on the Business Cycle," Working Papers 1514, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    14. Hein, Eckhard & Dodig, Nina, 2014. "Financialisation, distribution, growth and crises: Long-run tendencies," IPE Working Papers 35/2014, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    15. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-01937186 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Greg Hannsgen & Tai Young-Taft, 2015. "Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal Policy Model: The Unit of Account, Inflation, Leverage, and Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_839, Levy Economics Institute.
    17. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis, 2023. "Debt-GDP cycles in historical perspective: the case of the USA (1889–2014)," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 317-335.
    18. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    19. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    20. Peter Skott, 2011. "Heterodox macro after the crisis," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-23, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    21. Charpe, Matthieu & Flaschel, Peter, 2013. "Workers’ debt, default and the diversity of financial fragilities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 48-65.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Household debt; Housing bubbles; Limit cycle; Financial instability hypothesis; Stock-flow consistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:26:y:2016:i:5:d:10.1007_s00191-016-0473-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.