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A mechanism for the elicitation of second-order belief and subjective information structure

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  • Edi Karni

    (Johns Hopkins University
    University of Warwick)

Abstract

This paper describes a direct revelation mechanism for eliciting (a) decision makers’ range of subjective priors under Knightian uncertainty and their second-order introspective belief and (b) Bayesian decision makers’ range of posteriors and their subjective information structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Edi Karni, 2020. "A mechanism for the elicitation of second-order belief and subjective information structure," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(1), pages 217-232, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:69:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s00199-018-1162-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-018-1162-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qu, Xiangyu, 2012. "A mechanism for eliciting a probability distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 399-400.
    2. Chambers, Christopher P. & Lambert, Nicolas S., 2014. "Dynamically Eliciting Unobservable Information," Research Papers 3036, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. Kyoungwon Seo, 2009. "Ambiguity and Second-Order Belief," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1575-1605, September.
    4. Jay Lu, 2016. "Random Choice and Private Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1983-2027, November.
    5. ,, 2014. "Second order beliefs models of choice under imprecise risk: non-additive second order beliefs vs. nonlinear second order utility," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), September.
    6. Raphaël Giraud, 2014. "Second order beliefs models of choice under imprecise risk: Nonadditive second order beliefs versus nonlinear second order utility," Post-Print halshs-00102346, HAL.
    7. Karni, Edi & Safra, Zvi, 2016. "A theory of stochastic choice under uncertainty," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 164-173.
    8. Kreps, David M, 1979. "A Representation Theorem for "Preference for Flexibility"," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 565-577, May.
    9. Dillenberger, David & Lleras, Juan Sebastián & Sadowski, Philipp & Takeoka, Norio, 2014. "A theory of subjective learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 287-312.
    10. Tsogbadral Galaabaatar & Edi Karni, 2013. "Subjective Expected Utility With Incomplete Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 255-284, January.
    11. Leandro Nascimento & Gil Riella, 2013. "Second-order ambiguous beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(3), pages 1005-1037, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karni, Edi & Vierø, Marie-Louise, 2023. "Comparative incompleteness: Measurement, behavioral manifestations and elicitation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 423-442.
    2. Henkel, Luca, 2024. "Experimental evidence on the relationship between perceived ambiguity and likelihood insensitivity," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 312-338.
    3. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2023. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Christopher P. Chambers & Nicolas S. Lambert, 2021. "Dynamic Belief Elicitation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 375-414, January.
    5. Karni, Edi, 2022. "A theory-based decision model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Second-order belief; Subjective information structure; Knightian uncertainty; Probability elicitation; Robust Bayesian statistics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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