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A mechanism for the elicitation of second-order belief and subjective information structure

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  • Edi Karni

    (Johns Hopkins University
    University of Warwick)

Abstract

This paper describes a direct revelation mechanism for eliciting (a) decision makers’ range of subjective priors under Knightian uncertainty and their second-order introspective belief and (b) Bayesian decision makers’ range of posteriors and their subjective information structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Edi Karni, 2020. "A mechanism for the elicitation of second-order belief and subjective information structure," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(1), pages 217-232, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:69:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s00199-018-1162-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-018-1162-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qu, Xiangyu, 2012. "A mechanism for eliciting a probability distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 399-400.
    2. Chambers, Christopher P. & Lambert, Nicolas S., 2014. "Dynamically Eliciting Unobservable Information," Research Papers 3036, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. Karni, Edi & Safra, Zvi, 2016. "A theory of stochastic choice under uncertainty," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 164-173.
    4. Kyoungwon Seo, 2009. "Ambiguity and Second-Order Belief," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1575-1605, September.
    5. Jay Lu, 2016. "Random Choice and Private Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1983-2027, November.
    6. ,, 2014. "Second order beliefs models of choice under imprecise risk: non-additive second order beliefs vs. nonlinear second order utility," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), September.
    7. Kreps, David M, 1979. "A Representation Theorem for "Preference for Flexibility"," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 565-577, May.
    8. Dillenberger, David & Lleras, Juan Sebastián & Sadowski, Philipp & Takeoka, Norio, 2014. "A theory of subjective learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 287-312.
    9. Tsogbadral Galaabaatar & Edi Karni, 2013. "Subjective Expected Utility With Incomplete Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 255-284, January.
    10. Leandro Nascimento & Gil Riella, 2013. "Second-order ambiguous beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(3), pages 1005-1037, April.
    11. Raphaël Giraud, 2014. "Second order beliefs models of choice under imprecise risk: Nonadditive second order beliefs versus nonlinear second order utility," Post-Print halshs-00102346, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Henkel, Luca, 2024. "Experimental evidence on the relationship between perceived ambiguity and likelihood insensitivity," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 312-338.
    2. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2023. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Karni, Edi & Vierø, Marie-Louise, 2023. "Comparative incompleteness: Measurement, behavioral manifestations and elicitation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 423-442.
    4. Christopher P. Chambers & Nicolas S. Lambert, 2021. "Dynamic Belief Elicitation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 375-414, January.
    5. Karni, Edi, 2022. "A theory-based decision model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Second-order belief; Subjective information structure; Knightian uncertainty; Probability elicitation; Robust Bayesian statistics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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