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Randomization and dynamic consistency

Author

Listed:
  • Jürgen Eichberger

    (Universität Heidelberg)

  • Simon Grant

    (Australian National University
    University of Queensland)

  • David Kelsey

    (University of Exeter)

Abstract

Raiffa (Q J Econ 75:690–694, 1961) has suggested that ambiguity aversion will cause a strict preference for randomization. We show that dynamic consistency implies that individuals will be indifferent to ex ante randomizations. On the other hand, it is possible for a dynamically consistent ambiguity averse preference relation to exhibit a strict preference for some ex post randomizations. We argue that our analysis throws some light on the recent debate on the status of the smooth model of ambiguity This debate rests on whether the randomizations implicit in the set-up are viewed as being resolved before or after the (ambiguous) uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Eichberger & Simon Grant & David Kelsey, 2016. "Randomization and dynamic consistency," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 547-566, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:62:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s00199-015-0913-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-015-0913-8
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Spyros Galanis, 2021. "Dynamic consistency, valuable information and subjective beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1497, June.
    2. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. "Mixed extensions of decision problems under uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(4), pages 827-866, April.
    3. Calford, Evan, 2016. "Mixed Strategies in Games with Ambiguity Averse Agents," MPRA Paper 74909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Federica Ceron & Vassili Vergopoulos, 2021. "On stochastic independence under ambiguity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 71(3), pages 925-960, April.
    5. Calford, Evan M., 2020. "Uncertainty aversion in game theory: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 720-734.
    6. Adam Dominiak & Ani Guerdjikova, 2021. "Special Issue on Ambiguity and Strategic Interactions in Honor of Jürgen Eichberger," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 301-307, May.
    7. Michel Grabisch & Benjamin Monet & Vassili Vergopoulos, 2023. "Subjective expected utility through stochastic independence," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(3), pages 723-757, October.
    8. Kauffeldt, T. Florian, 2016. "Strategic behavior of non-expected utility players in games with payoff uncertainty," Working Papers 0614, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    9. Erick Delage & Daniel Kuhn & Wolfram Wiesemann, 2019. "“Dice”-sion–Making Under Uncertainty: When Can a Random Decision Reduce Risk?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(7), pages 3282-3301, July.
    10. Roxane Bricet, 2018. "Precise versus imprecise datasets: revisiting ambiguity attitudes in the Ellsberg paradox," THEMA Working Papers 2018-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    11. Michael Greinecker & Christoph Kuzmics, 2019. "Limit Orders under Knightian Uncertainty," Graz Economics Papers 2019-03, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    12. Jörg Oechssler & Alex Roomets, 2021. "Savage vs. Anscombe-Aumann: an experimental investigation of ambiguity frameworks," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 405-416, May.
    13. Benjamin Monet & Vassili Vergopoulos, 2024. "Ambiguity, randomization and the timing of resolution of uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 78(4), pages 1021-1045, December.
    14. Kuzmics, Christoph, 2017. "Abraham Wald's complete class theorem and Knightian uncertainty," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 666-673.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Ex ante and ex post randomization; Dynamic consistency; Smooth ambiguity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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