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Bayesian general equilibrium

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  • Alexis Toda

Abstract

I introduce a general equilibrium model of non-optimizing agents that respond to aggregate variables (prices and the average demand profile of agent types) by putting a “prior” on their demand. An interim equilibrium is defined by the posterior demand distribution of agent types conditional on market clearing. A Bayesian general equilibrium (BGE) is an interim equilibrium such that aggregate variables are correctly anticipated. Under weak conditions, I prove the existence and the informational efficiency of BGE. I discuss the conditions under which the set of Bayesian and Walrasian equilibria coincide and show that the Walrasian equilibrium arises from a large class of non-optimizing behavior. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis Toda, 2015. "Bayesian general equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(2), pages 375-411, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:58:y:2015:i:2:p:375-411
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-014-0849-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Tanaka, Ken'ichiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2015. "Discretizing Distributions with Exact Moments: Error Estimate and Convergence Analysis," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt2tc0m67t, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Lee, Ji Hyung & Sasaki, Yuya & Toda, Alexis Akira & Wang, Yulong, 2024. "Tuning parameter-free nonparametric density estimation from tabulated summary data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    3. Jangho Yang, 2018. "Information Theoretic Approaches In Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 940-960, July.
    4. Jangho Yang, 2023. "Information‐theoretic model of induced technical change: Theory and empirics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 2-39, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayes rule; Distribution; Kullback–Leibler information; Maximum entropy; C11; D03; D3; D51; D83;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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