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Asset price volatility and trading volume with rational beliefs

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  • Ho-Mou Wu
  • Wen-Chung Guo

Abstract

This paper develops a model of speculative trading in a large economy with a continuum of investors. In our model the investors are assumed to have diverse beliefs which are rational in the sense of being compatible with observed data. We demonstrate the existence of price amplification effects and show that the equilibrium prices can be higher or lower than the rational expectation equilibrium price. It is also shown that trading volume is positively related to the directions of price changes. Moreover, we study how asset price volatility and trading volume are influenced by belief structures, short selling constraints and the amount of fund available for investment. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Ho-Mou Wu & Wen-Chung Guo, 2004. "Asset price volatility and trading volume with rational beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 23(4), pages 795-829, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:23:y:2004:i:4:p:795-829
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-003-0397-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carsten Nielsen, 2009. "Non-stationary, stable Markov processes on a continuous state space," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 40(3), pages 473-496, September.
    2. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
    3. Kin‐Yip Ho & Lin Zheng & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2012. "Volume, volatility and information linkages in the stock and option markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 168-174, November.
    4. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2018. "Rational overconfidence and social security: subjective beliefs, objective welfare," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(2), pages 179-229, March.
    5. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize Lecture)," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1936, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Motolese, Maurizio & Nakata, Hiroyuki, 2024. "Are macroeconomic indices fool's gold?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 240-260.
    7. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1486-1517, June.
    8. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, July.
    9. Mordecai Kurz, 2007. "Rational Diverse Beliefs and Economic Volatility," Discussion Papers 06-045, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Agnes Bialecki & Eleonore Haguet & Gabriel Turinici, 2014. "Existence of an Equilibrium for Lower Semicontinuous Information Acquisition Functions," Post-Print hal-00723189, HAL.
    11. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Alp Simsek & Wei Xiong, 2014. "A Welfare Criterion For Models With Distorted Beliefs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1753-1797.
    12. Gabriel Desgranges & Céline Rochon, 2013. "Conformism and public news," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(3), pages 1061-1090, April.
    13. A. A. Brown & L. C. G. Rogers, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Finite-Lived Agents," Papers 0907.4953, arXiv.org.
    14. Laimutė Urbšienė & Andrius Bugajevas & Marekas Pipiras, 2016. "The Impact Of Investment Horizon On The Return And Risk Of Investments In Securities In Lithuania," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 7(2).
    15. Wen-Chung Guo & Frank Wang & Ho-Mou Wu, 2011. "Financial leverage and market volatility with diverse beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 337-364, June.
    16. Pierre Monnin, "undated". "Are stock markets really like beauty contests? Empirical evidence of higher order belief's impact on asset prices," IEW - Working Papers 202, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    17. Wen-Chung Guo & Sy-Ming Guu & Ting-Yun Chang, 2011. "Equilibrium Information Acquisition, Prediction Abilities and Asset Prices," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 89-111, January.
    18. A. A. Brown, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Partial Observations," Papers 0907.4950, arXiv.org.
    19. Angus A Brown & L C G Rogers, 2010. "Diverse Beliefs," Papers 1001.1450, arXiv.org.
    20. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Wu, Ho-Mou, 2006. "General equilibrium with endogenous uncertainty and default," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 499-524, August.
    21. Fenghua, Wen & Xiaoguang, Yang, 2009. "Empirical study on relationship between persistence-free trading volume and stock return volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 119-127.
    22. Maurizio MOTOLESE & NAKATA Hiroyuki, 2016. "Endogenous Fluctuations and Social Welfare under Credit Constraints and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Discussion papers 16082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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