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Optimal risk adoption: a real options approach

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  • Luis Alvarez
  • Rune Stenbacka

Abstract

This study develops a real options approach for analyzing the optimal risk adoption policy in an environment where the adoption means a switch from one stochastic flow representation into another. We establish that increased volatility does not necessarily decelerate investment, as predicted by the standard literature on real options, once the underlying volatility of the state variable is made endogenous. We prove that for a decision maker with a convex (concave) objective function, increased post-adoption volatility increases (decreases) the expected cumulative present value of the post-adoption profit flow, which consequently decreases (increases) the option value of waiting and, therefore, accelerates (decelerates) current investment. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Alvarez & Rune Stenbacka, 2003. "Optimal risk adoption: a real options approach," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 23(1), pages 123-147, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:23:y:2003:i:1:p:123-147
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-002-0349-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. T Heikkinen & K Pietola, 2006. "Rural Investment and the Cost of Income Uncertainty," ERSA conference papers ersa06p51, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2017. "Strategic Technology Switching under Risk Aversion and Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2017/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    3. Michail Chronopoulos & Verena Hagspiel & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2017. "Stepwise investment and capacity sizing under uncertainty," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 39(2), pages 447-472, March.
    4. Dumortier, Jerome & Kauffman, Nathan & Hayes, Dermot J., 2015. "Uncertainty and Time-to-Build in Bioenergy Crop Production," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800001019, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Heikkinen, T. & Pietola, K., 2009. "Investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty: The case of diminishing expectations in agriculture," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 634-646, January.
    6. Marc Fréchet & Hassen Raîs, 2015. "Les managers raisonnent-ils par options réelles ? Une étude exploratoire des déterminants," Post-Print hal-01764120, HAL.
    7. Alexander, Carol & Chen, Xi & Ward, Charles, 2021. "Risk-adjusted valuation for real option decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1046-1064.
    8. Dumortier, Jerome & Kauffman, Nathan & Hayes, Dermot J., 2017. "Production and spatial distribution of switchgrass and miscanthus in the United States under uncertainty and sunk cost," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 300-314.
    9. Chun-Hung Chiu & Shui-Hung Hou & Xun Li & Wei Liu, 2017. "Real options approach for fashionable and perishable products using stock loan with regime switching," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 257(1), pages 357-377, October.
    10. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2008. "Optimal and strategic timing of mergers and acquisitions motivated by synergies and risk diversification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1701-1720, May.
    11. Luis H. R. Alvarez, 2007. "Knightian Uncertainty, k-Ignorance, and Optimal Timing," Discussion Papers 25, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    12. Tim Leung & Michael Ludkovski, 2010. "Optimal Timing to Purchase Options," Papers 1008.3650, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.

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