IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecstr/v4y2015i1p1-1210.1186-s40008-015-0030-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of industrial output in Syria

Author

Listed:
  • Adel Mohsen
  • Soo Chua
  • Che Sab

Abstract

This study attempts to investigate the determinants of industrial output in Syria over the period 1980–2010. The ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response functions, variance decomposition analysis, and stability tests are used in this study. The Johansen cointegration test indicates that industrial output is positively related to capital, manufactured exports, population and agricultural output, but negatively related to the oil price. Agricultural output has the biggest effect on industrial output. The Granger causality test indicates bidirectional causality between capital, oil price, manufacturing exports, population, agricultural output, and industrial output in the short and long run. Copyright Mohsen et al. 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Adel Mohsen & Soo Chua & Che Sab, 2015. "Determinants of industrial output in Syria," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:4:y:2015:i:1:p:1-12:10.1186/s40008-015-0030-7
    DOI: 10.1186/s40008-015-0030-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1186/s40008-015-0030-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40008-015-0030-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. A. Al Mamun & H. K. Nath, 2005. "Export-led growth in Bangladesh: a time series analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 361-364.
    2. Patricia McGrath, 2006. "Financial Deregulation and Industrial Development: Subsequent Impact on Economic Growth in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 818, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Patricia Mc Grath, 2006. "Financial Deregulation and Financial Development, and Subsequent Impact on Economic Growth in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp828, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Charles R. Hulten & Esra Bennathan & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2006. "Infrastructure, Externalities, and Economic Development: A Study of the Indian Manufacturing Industry," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 291-308.
    6. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    8. repec:bla:opecrv:v:33:y:2009:i:3-4:p:170-183 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 2002. "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 823-852, May.
    10. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2006. "The Impact of International Oil Prices on Industrial Production: The Case of Thailand," MPRA Paper 47035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    12. Chandan Sharma & Sanjay Sehgal, 2010. "Impact of infrastructure on output, productivity and efficiency," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(2), pages 100-121, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Ejaz & Javed Iqbal, 2021. "Estimation and Forecasting of Industrial Production Index," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, Jan-June.
    2. Mingwen Chen & RongJia Chen & Shiyong Zheng & Biqing Li, 2023. "Green Investment, Technological Progress, and Green Industrial Development: Implications for Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-12, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Sankaran & A. Vadivel & M. Abdul Jamal, 2020. "Effects of dynamic variables on industrial output in one of the world’s fastest-growing countries: case evidence from India," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    3. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    4. Scheiblecker, Marcus, 2013. "Between cointegration and multicointegration: Modelling time series dynamics by cumulative error correction models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 511-517.
    5. Rault, Christophe, 2005. "Further Results on Weak Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 25(2), November.
    6. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    7. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Cointegration in a historical perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 156-159, September.
    8. Ali Anari & James Kolari, 2001. "Stock Prices And Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, December.
    9. Signe Rosenberg, 2015. "The Impact of a Change in Real Estate Value on Private Consumption in Estonia," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 7(2).
    10. Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1997. "STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy," Working Papers 1997-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Григорьев Р.А., 2019. "Одновременные Эффекты Несинхронных Временных Рядов: Проблемы Var-Модели," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(2), pages 118-129, апрель.
    12. Le Fur, Eric, 2020. "Dynamics of the global fine art market prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 167-180.
    13. repec:wyi:journl:002065 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Rangan Gupta & Stephen Miller, 2012. "“Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 763-782, June.
    15. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Contemporaneous causal orderings of US corn cash prices through directed acyclic graphs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 731-758, March.
    16. Panayiotis Diamantis & Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "The Monetary Approach in the Presence of I(2) Components: A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Black Market for Foreign Currency in Latin America," Working Papers 0108, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    17. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James & Mason, Joseph, 2005. "Bank Asset Liquidation and the Propagation of the U.S. Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 753-773, August.
    19. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2015. "Regime switching model of US crude oil and stock market prices: 1859 to 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 317-327.
    20. Olagunju, Kehinde Oluseyi & Feng, Siyi & Patton, Myles, 2021. "Dynamic relationships among phosphate rock, fertilisers and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from a vector error correction model and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    21. Ramazan Sari & Ugur Soytas, 2006. "Income and Education in Turkey: A Multivariate Analysis," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 181-196.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil-dependent economy; Industrial output; Capital; Manufactured exports; Oil price; VAR; O11; E20;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:4:y:2015:i:1:p:1-12:10.1186/s40008-015-0030-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.