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Did the BOJ’s negative interest rate policy increase bank lending?

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  • Hiroshi Gunji

    (Daito Bunka University)

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of the negative interest rate policy in Japan on bank lending using regression discontinuity design. On January 29, 2016, the Bank of Japan announced the beginning of the negative interest rate policy from February 16, 2016. As the financial market did not anticipate this policy, we use the event as a natural experiment. For a few months, starting from February 2016, a negative interest rate was levied on banks that held reserves exceeding the average monthly reserves of 2015. This allows us to employ regression discontinuity design. The results suggest an average treatment effect on the banks levied a negative interest rate of $$-$$ - 1.5% to $$-$$ - 3.5%. In other words, the loans of banks levied negative interest rates declined compared with those of banks that were not.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Gunji, 2025. "Did the BOJ’s negative interest rate policy increase bank lending?," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 76(1), pages 91-120, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecrev:v:76:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s42973-023-00150-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s42973-023-00150-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Negative interest rate policy; Regression discontinuity design; Bank of Japan; Bank lending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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