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A time series test to identify housing bubbles

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  • Diego Escobari
  • Damian Damianov
  • Andres Bello

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new time series empirical test to identify housing bubble periods. Our test estimates the beginning and the burst of bubbles as structural breaks in the difference between the appreciation rates of the Case-Shiller price tiers. We identify the relevant periods by exploiting the common characteristic that lower-tier house prices tend to rise faster during the boom and fall more precipitously during the bust. We implement our test on 15 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas during the most recent housing bubble. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

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  • Diego Escobari & Damian Damianov & Andres Bello, 2015. "A time series test to identify housing bubbles," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 136-152, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:39:y:2015:i:1:p:136-152
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-013-9251-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Escobari, Diego & Jafarinejad, Mohammad, 2016. "Date stamping bubbles in Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 224-230.
    2. Damian S. Damianov & Diego Escobari, 2021. "Getting on and Moving Up the Property Ladder: Real Hedging in the U.S. Housing Market Before and After the Crisis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1201-1237, December.
    3. Escobari, Diego & Garcia, Sergio & Mellado, Cristhian, 2017. "Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 90-101.
    4. Chaohai Shen & Tong Sheng & Xingheng Shi & Bingquan Fang & Xiaoqian Lu & Xiaolan Zhou, 2022. "The Relationship between Housing Price, Teacher Salary Improvement, and Sustainable Regional Economic Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Marcelo M. de Oliveira & Alexandre C. L. Almeida, 2014. "Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market," Papers 1401.7615, arXiv.org.
    6. Janusz Sobieraj & Dominik Metelski, 2021. "Testing Housing Markets for Episodes of Exuberance: Evidence from Different Polish Cities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-29, September.
    7. Soosung Hwang & Youngha Cho & Jinho Shin, 2020. "The impact of UK household overconfidence in public information on house prices," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 360-389, October.
    8. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2018. "Bubbles in US regional house prices: evidence from house price–income ratios at the State level," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(29), pages 3196-3229, June.
    9. Damianov, Damian S & Escobari, Diego, 2015. "Long-Run Equilibrium Shift and Short-Run Dynamics of U.S. Home Price Tiers during the Housing Bubble," MPRA Paper 65765, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing bubbles; Price tiers; Time series; R31; D11; D12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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