IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v39y2015i1p100-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mean and volatility transmission for commodity futures

Author

Listed:
  • Terrance Grieb

Abstract

This paper employs a two-step GARCH-M procedure to study price and volatility spillover effects between nine physical commodity futures contracts, as well as transmissions to those commodities from Eurodollars, the S&P500, and the U.S. Dollar Index. Our results show a strong pattern of price spillovers which indicate that price innovations for one commodity tend to have information that is transferred to other commodities. We also document the presence of volatility spillover effects that reflect the transmission of risk-pricing between commodities. Overall, corn was demonstrated to be the commodity that most broadly received and transmitted both price and volatility spillovers, followed by crude oil. In addition, spillover effects are broadly documented within each commodity complex and from the external markets observed. The results demonstrate the need to account for cross-commodity spillovers of both price and volatility when modeling optimal portfolio allocations and also when creating commodity based hedging models. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Terrance Grieb, 2015. "Mean and volatility transmission for commodity futures," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 100-118, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:39:y:2015:i:1:p:100-118
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-012-9245-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s12197-012-9245-8
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12197-012-9245-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
    2. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li, 2008. "Asymmetric effect of basis on dynamic futures hedging: Empirical evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 187-198, February.
    3. Theodossiou, Panayiotis, et al, 1997. "Volatility Reversion and Correlation Structure of Returns in Major International Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 205-224, May.
    4. Y. Angela Liu & Ming-Shiun Pan, 1997. "Mean and Volatility Spillover Effects in the U.S. and Pacific–Basin Stock Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 47-62, March.
    5. Tse, Yiuman, 1998. "International transmission of information: evidence from the Euroyen and Eurodollar futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 909-929, December.
    6. Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
    7. Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Volatility spillovers across equity markets: European evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 245-256.
    8. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Martikainen, Teppo & Tse, Yiuman, 1997. "Price and volatility spillovers in Scandinavian stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 811-823, June.
    9. Conrad, Jennifer & Gultekin, Mustafa N & Kaul, Gautam, 1991. "Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 597-622.
    10. Mike K.P. So & K. Lam & W.K. Li, 1997. "An Empirical Study of Volatility in Seven Southeast Asian Stock Markets Using ARV Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 261-276.
    11. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    12. Panayiotis Theodossiou & Unro Lee, 1993. "Mean And Volatility Spillovers Across Major National Stock Markets: Further Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 337-350, December.
    13. Mike K.P. So & K. Lam & W.K. Li, 1997. "An Empirical Study of Volatility in Seven Southeast Asian Stock Markets Using ARV Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 261-276, March.
    14. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    15. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
    16. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2005. "Re-examining the asymmetric predictability of conditional variances: The role of sudden changes in variance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2655-2673, October.
    17. Chng, Michael T., 2009. "Economic linkages across commodity futures: Hedging and trading implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 958-970, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ki-Hong Choi & Ron P. McIver & Salvatore Ferraro & Lei Xu & Sang Hoon Kang, 2021. "Dynamic volatility spillover and network connectedness across ASX sector markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 677-691, October.
    2. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2018. "On the interdependence of natural gas and stock markets under structural breaks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-161.
    3. Wang Gao & Jiajia Wei & Shixiong Yang, 2023. "The Asymmetric Effects of Extreme Climate Risk Perception on Coal Futures Return Dynamics: Evidence from Nonparametric Causality-In-Quantiles Tests," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegić & Marko Pećanac, 2019. "Multiscale interdependence between the major agricultural commodities," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 82-92.
    5. Bhabani Sankar Rout & Nupur Moni Das & K. Chandrasekhara Rao, 2019. "Volatility Spillover Effect in Commodity Derivatives Market: Empirical Evidence Through Generalized Impulse Response Function," Vision, , vol. 23(4), pages 374-396, December.
    6. Nicoleta BARBUTA-MISU & Teodor HADA & Iulia Cristina IUGA & Dorin WAINBERG, 2023. "Do Methane Gas Prices Interact with Stock Indices?," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 90-100.
    7. Hamadi, Hassan & Bassil, Charbel & Nehme, Tamara, 2017. "News surprises and volatility spillover among agricultural commodities: The case of corn, wheat, soybean and soybean oil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 148-157.
    8. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on multi-scale asymmetric spillovers between food and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Zolfaghari, Mehdi & Ghoddusi, Hamed & Faghihian, Fatemeh, 2020. "Volatility spillovers for energy prices: A diagonal BEKK approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Mofleh Alshogeathri & Jamel Jouini, 2017. "Linkages Between Equity and Global Food Markets: New Evidence from Including Structural Changes," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 166-198, June.
    11. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2017. "On the dynamic interactions between energy and stock markets under structural shifts: Evidence from Egypt," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 61-74.
    12. Ayesha Sayed & Christo Auret, 2020. "Volatility transmission in the South African white maize futures market," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 71-88, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeannine Bailliu, 2000. "Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Staff Working Papers 00-16, Bank of Canada.
    2. Usman M. Umer, Metin Coskun, Kasim Kiraci, 2018. "Time-varying Return and Volatility Spillover among EAGLEs Stock Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Analysis," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 23-42, March.
    3. Kim Liow & Zhiwei Chen & Jingran Liu, 2011. "Multiple Regimes and Volatility Transmission in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 295-328, April.
    4. Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Dasilas, Apostolos & Papasyriopoulos, Nicholas, 2009. "Volatility and error transmission spillover effects: Evidence from three European financial regions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 858-869, August.
    5. In, Francis & Kim, Sangbae & Yoon, Jai Hyung & Viney, Christopher, 2001. "Dynamic interdependence and volatility transmission of Asian stock markets: Evidence from the Asian crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 87-96.
    6. Constantinos Katrakilidis & Athanasios Koulakiotis, 2006. "The Impact of Stock Exchange Rules on Volatility and Error Transmission -- The Case of Frankfurt and Zurich Cross-Listed Equities," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 321-338, November.
    7. Martens, Martin & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2001. "Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1805-1827, October.
    8. Yiuman Tse & Lin Zhao, 2011. "The Relationship between Currency Carry Trades and U.S. Stocks The article examines the relationship between daily returns of currency carry trades and U.S. stocks from January 1995 through September ," Working Papers 0005, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    9. Kim Hiang Liow & Joseph Ooi & Yantao Gong, 2005. "Cross‐market dynamics in property stock markets," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 23(1), pages 55-75, February.
    10. Athanasios Koulakiotis & Katerina Lyroudi & Nikos Thomaidis & Nicholas Papasyriopoulos, 2010. "The impact of cross‐listings on the UK and the German stock markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(1), pages 4-18, March.
    11. Muhammad Niaz Khan & Suzanne G. M. Fifield & Nongnuch Tantisantiwong & David M. Power, 2022. "Changes in co-movement and risk transmission between South Asian stock markets amidst the development of regional co-operation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(1), pages 87-117, March.
    12. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    13. Gannon, Gerard, 2005. "Simultaneous volatility transmissions and spillover effects: U.S. and Hong Kong stock and futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 326-336.
    14. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2017. "Exploiting Spillovers to Forecast Crashes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(8), pages 936-955, December.
    15. Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Babalos, Vassilios & Papasyriopoulos, Nicholas, 2016. "Financial crisis, liquidity and dynamic linkages between large and small stocks: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-62.
    16. Nikitas Niarchos & Yiuman Tse & Chunchi Wu & Allan Young, 1999. "International Transmission of Information: A Study of the Relationship Between the U.S. and Greek Stock Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 19-40, March.
    17. Jose Luis Miralles-Marcelo & Jose Luis Miralles-Quiros & Maria del Mar Miralles-Quiros, 2010. "Intraday linkages between the Spanish and the US stock markets: evidence of an overreaction effect," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 223-235.
    18. Iwatsubo, Kentaro & Inagaki, Kazuyuki, 2007. "Measuring financial market contagion using dually-traded stocks of Asian firms," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 217-236, February.
    19. Jawadi, Fredj & Louhichi, Waël & Idi Cheffou, Abdoulkarim, 2015. "Testing and modeling jump contagion across international stock markets: A nonparametric intraday approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 64-84.
    20. Hsin, Chin-Wen, 2004. "A multilateral approach to examining the comovements among major world equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 433-462.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price spillover; Volatility spillover; GARCH-M; Commodities; G11; G13; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:39:y:2015:i:1:p:100-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.