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Output variability and economic growth: The case of Australia

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  • Joseph Macri
  • Dipendra Sinha

Abstract

This paper looks at the relationship between output variability and economic growth in Australia using the ARCH-M model. Quarterly data for growth rates of industrial production and of GDP are used for the analyses. However, the growth of GDP does not show any ARCH effects. The variability is found to be significantly negatively related to the growth rate of industrial production. Unlike Caporale and McKiernan (1998), our empirical results do not support Black's (1987) hypothesis, which is that there is a positive relationship between output variability and economic growth. Our results support the Keynesian position. Copyright Springer 2000

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  • Joseph Macri & Dipendra Sinha, 2000. "Output variability and economic growth: The case of Australia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 275-282, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:24:y:2000:i:3:p:275-282
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02752608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michał Brzozowski, 2012. "Wpływ wahań produkcji i wielkości kredytu na wartość dodaną w polskim przemyśle przetwórczym," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 57-77.
    2. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
    3. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "Cross‐Country Evidence On Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance And Garch Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 509-541, September.
    4. Wen‐Shwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 819-838, January.
    5. Matthew Rafferty, 2004. "Growth-business cycle interaction: A look at the OECD," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 10(3), pages 191-201, October.
    6. Matthew Rafferty, 2002. "Black’s hypothesis and developed economies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(3), pages 309-326, September.
    7. Michał Brzozowski, 2011. "The interplay between labor market rigidity and volatility-growth nexus," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 405-418.
    8. Macri, Joseph & Sinha, Dipendra, 2007. "Does Black’s Hypothesis for Output Variability Hold for Mexico?," MPRA Paper 4021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Leonidas Spiliopoulos, 2005. "What determines macroeconomic volatility? A cross-section and panel data study," Macroeconomics 0505026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Matthew Rafferty, 2005. "The Effects of Expected and Unexpected Volatility on Long‐Run Growth: Evidence from 18 Developed Economies," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(3), pages 582-591, January.
    11. Bermúdez, Cecilia & Dabús, Carlos & Aromí, Daniel, 2022. "Uncertainty and economic growth: evidence from Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    12. James Laurenceson & Danielle Rodgers, 2010. "The impact of volatility on growth in China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(4), pages 527-536, December.

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