IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nig/wpaper/0063.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Economic Growth and the Variability of the Business Cycle Related? Evidence from Five European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Stilianos Fountas
  • Menelaos Karanasos

    (Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Galway)

Abstract

We use a long series of annual data that span over 100 years to examine the relationship between output growth and output growth uncertainty in five European countries. Using the GARCH methodology to proxy output growth uncertainty, we obtain two important results: First, more uncertainty about output growth leads to a higher rate of output growth in three of the five countries. Second, output growth reduces output growth uncertainty in all countries except one. Our results provide strong support to the view that macroeconomists should examine the theories of economic growth and the variability of the business cycle in tandem.

Suggested Citation

  • Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2002. "Are Economic Growth and the Variability of the Business Cycle Related? Evidence from Five European Countries," Working Papers 0063, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
    • Handle: RePEc:nig:wpaper:0063
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics.nuig.ie/resrch/paper.php?pid=68
    File Function: First version, 2002
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.economics.nuig.ie/resrch/paper.php?pid=68
    File Function: Revised version, 2002
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mirman, Leonard J, 1971. "Uncertainty and Optimal Consumption Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 179-185, January.
    2. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    3. Keith Blackburn & Alessandra Pelloni, 2005. "Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 262-282, April.
    4. repec:bla:scotjp:v:46:y:1999:i:2:p:175-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Chattopadhyay, Pradip, 2003. "Volatility and growth in developing economies: some numerical results and empirical evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 267-295, March.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
    8. Alan E. H. Speight, 1999. "UK Output Variability and Growth: Some Further Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 175-184, May.
    9. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
    10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    11. Blackburn, Keith & Pelloni, Alessandra, 2004. "On the relationship between growth and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-127, April.
    12. A. Sandmo, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(3), pages 353-360.
    13. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Alfonso Mendoza, 2004. "Output Variability and Economic Growth: the Japanese Case," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 353-363, October.
    14. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    15. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    16. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
    17. Blackburn, Keith & Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2003. "Growth, volatility and learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 417-421, June.
    18. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    19. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    20. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
    21. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    22. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2003. "Alternative characterization of the volatility in the growth rate of real GDP," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 223-231, April.
    23. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2002. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty and their relationship with inflation and output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 293-301, May.
    24. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    25. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Government Policy in a Stochastic Growth Model with Elastic Labor Supply," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 2(4), pages 389-433, October.
    26. Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January.
    27. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
    28. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-236, May.
    29. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    30. Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2002. "The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 683-692, January.
    31. repec:bla:manchs:v:69:y:2001:i:5:p:534-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. repec:bla:econom:v:65:y:1998:i:259:p:401-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Smith, William T., 1996. "Taxes, uncertainty, and long-term growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1647-1664, November.
    34. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
    35. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
    2. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2010. "The link between macroeconomic performance and variability in the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 154-157, March.
    3. Balaji Bathmanaban & Raja Sethu Durai S & Ramachandran M, 2017. "The relationship between Output Uncertainty and Economic Growth-Evidence from India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2680-2691.
    4. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Christos Savva, 2021. "Is British output growth related to its uncertainty? Evidence using eight centuries of data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 345-364, July.
    5. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2019. "Regime Dependent Effect Of Output Growth On Output Growth Uncertainty: Evidence From Oecd Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 257-282, July.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2020. "A re-examination of growth and growth uncertainty relationship in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 611-641, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Christos Savva, 2021. "Is British output growth related to its uncertainty? Evidence using eight centuries of data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 345-364, July.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2020. "A re-examination of growth and growth uncertainty relationship in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 611-641, August.
    3. Pinar Deniz & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Revisiting the link between output growth and volatility: panel GARCH analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 743-771, August.
    4. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2005. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Are They Related?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 58-76, September.
    5. Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2012. "Effects of growth volatility on economic performance – Empirical evidence from Turkey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 351-356.
    6. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
    7. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in the European Union and Implications for the objectives of Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 2008_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2008.
    8. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2006. "The relationship between economic growth and real uncertainty in the G3," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 638-647, July.
    9. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2010. "Dynamics Of Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainty In The Uk: An Empirical Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 511-537, December.
    10. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 81-92.
    11. Dimitrios Bakas & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2019. "Volatility and growth: a not so straightforward relationship," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 874-907.
    12. Christoph Priesmeier & Nikolai Stähler, 2011. "Long Dark Shadows Or Innovative Spirits? The Effects Of (Smoothing) Business Cycles On Economic Growth: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 898-912, December.
    13. Balaji Bathmanaban & Raja Sethu Durai S & Ramachandran M, 2017. "The relationship between Output Uncertainty and Economic Growth-Evidence from India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2680-2691.
    14. Shu-Chin Lin & Dong-Hyeon Kim, 2014. "The link between economic growth and growth volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 43-63, February.
    15. Wen‐Shwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 819-838, January.
    16. K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2001. "On the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility in Learning-by-Doing Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 01, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.
    18. Bredin, Don & Fountas, Stilianos, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 972-986, October.
    19. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2011. "Long‐Term Growth And Short‐Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 646-672, June.
    20. Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2009. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in Asian Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 215-229, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output growth; Output growth uncertainity; GARCH.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nig:wpaper:0063. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Srinivas Raghavendra (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deucgie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.