IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jcsosc/v5y2022i1d10.1007_s42001-021-00158-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fooled by facts: quantifying anchoring bias through a large-scale experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Taha Yasseri

    (University College Dublin
    Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin
    Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford
    Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and AI)

  • Jannie Reher

    (Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford)

Abstract

Through a large-scale online field experiment, we provide new empirical evidence for the presence of the anchoring bias in people’s judgement due to irrational reliance on a piece of information that they are initially given. The comparison of the anchoring stimuli and respective responses across different tasks reveals a positive, yet complex relationship between the anchors and the bias in participants’ predictions of the outcomes of events in the future. Participants in the treatment group were equally susceptible to the anchors regardless of their level of engagement, previous performance, or gender. Given the strong and ubiquitous influence of anchors quantified here, we should take great care to closely monitor and regulate the distribution of information online to facilitate less biased decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Taha Yasseri & Jannie Reher, 2022. "Fooled by facts: quantifying anchoring bias through a large-scale experiment," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1001-1021, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jcsosc:v:5:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s42001-021-00158-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s42001-021-00158-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s42001-021-00158-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s42001-021-00158-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eroglu, Cuneyt & Croxton, Keely L., 2010. "Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 116-133, January.
    2. Furnham, Adrian & Boo, Hua Chu, 2011. "A literature review of the anchoring effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-42, February.
    3. Northcraft, Gregory B. & Neale, Margaret A., 1987. "Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 84-97, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bahník, Štěpán & Yoon, Sangsuk, 2023. "Anchoring effect in business," OSF Preprints 98qdv, Center for Open Science.
    2. Kevin Bauer & Andrej Gill, 2024. "Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Algorithmic Assessments, Transparency, and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 226-248, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Fonseca Costa & Francisval Carvalho & Bruno César Moreira & José Willer Prado, 2017. "Bibliometric analysis on the association between behavioral finance and decision making with cognitive biases such as overconfidence, anchoring effect and confirmation bias," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 1775-1799, June.
    2. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till E., 2015. "Anchoring in social context," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 29-39.
    3. Gao, Shenghao & Meng, Qingbin & Chan, Jesse Y. & Chan, Kam C., 2018. "Cognitive reference points, institutional investors' bid prices, and IPO pricing: Evidence from IPO auctions in China," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 124-140.
    4. Gergaud, Olivier & Plantinga, Andrew J. & Ringeval-Deluze, Aurelie, 2015. "Anchoring and Property Prices: The Influence of Echelle Des Crus Ratings on Land Sales in the Champagne Region of France," Working Papers 231136, American Association of Wine Economists.
    5. Schaerer, Michael & Kern, Mary & Berger, Gail & Medvec, Victoria & Swaab, Roderick I., 2018. "The illusion of transparency in performance appraisals: When and why accuracy motivation explains unintentional feedback inflation," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 171-186.
    6. Gao, Shenghao & Cao, Feng & Fok, Robert (Chi-Wing), 2019. "The anchoring effect of underwriters' proposed price ranges on institutional investors' bid prices in IPO auctions: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 111-127.
    7. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Ytzen van der Werf & Fred Huibers, 2015. "Effect of changing valuer on real estate portfolio valuations," ERES eres2015_166, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Qian Wang & Michael Chau & Chih-Hung Peng & Eric W. T. Ngai, 2022. "Using the Anchoring Effect and the Cultural Dimensions Theory to Study Customers’ Online Rating Behaviors," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 1451-1463, October.
    10. Dean Gatzlaff & Peng Liu, 2013. "List Price Information in the Negotiation of Commercial Real Estate Transactions: Is Silence Golden?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 760-786, November.
    11. Ahmetoglu, Gorkan & Furnham, Adrian & Fagan, Patrick, 2014. "Pricing practices: A critical review of their effects on consumer perceptions and behaviour," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 696-707.
    12. Ünveren, Burak & Baycar, Kazım, 2019. "Historical evidence for anchoring bias: The 1875 cadastral survey in Istanbul," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Nathan N. Cheek & Sarah Coe-Odess & Barry Schwartz, 2015. "What have I just done? Anchoring, self-knowledge, and judgments of recent behavior," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(1), pages 76-85, January.
    14. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:1:p:76-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Yossi Maaravi & Aharon Levy, 2017. "When your anchor sinks your boat: Information asymmetry in distributive negotiations and the disadvantage of making the first offer," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(5), pages 420-429, September.
    16. Furnham, Adrian & Boo, Hua Chu, 2011. "A literature review of the anchoring effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-42, February.
    17. Hirota, Shinichi & Suzuki-Löffelholz, Kumi & Udagawa, Daisuke, 2020. "Does owners’ purchase price affect rent offered? Experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    18. Dominic Bergers, 2021. "Individual differences in the susceptibility of biases relevant in price management: a state-of-the-art article," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(4), pages 497-528, August.
    19. Keith Anderson & Tomasz Zastawniak, 2017. "Glamour, value and anchoring on the changing /," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 375-406, April.
    20. Matthew B. Welsh & Steve H. Begg, 2018. "More-or-less elicitation (MOLE): reducing bias in range estimation and forecasting," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 171-212, June.
    21. Gergaud, Olivier & Plantinga, Andrew J. & Ringeval-Deluze, Aurelie, 2017. "Anchored in the past: Persistent price effects of obsolete vineyard ratings in France," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 39-51.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jcsosc:v:5:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s42001-021-00158-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.