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Nowcast models for train delays based on the railway network status

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  • Adithya Thaduri

    (Luleå University of Technology)

Abstract

Switches and crossings (S&C) or turnouts are one of the important systems in the Swedish railway traffic maintenance planning. For immediate diverting of the trains, they need to be predict the working condition for short time duration, also known as nowcasting and for long time duration, also known as forecasting. The prediction of the condition of turnout is useful for traffic planning without disrupting to the traffic. Hence, the main purpose of this paper is to predict the condition of S&Cs for shorter and longer duration. In order to achieve it, at first, statistical analysis is carried out to find the root causes of failures. Secondly, non-homogenous Poisson process is applied to nowcast and forecast the working condition. The results of this study will guide the train dispatchers to plan the train timetable according the present traffic.

Suggested Citation

  • Adithya Thaduri, 0. "Nowcast models for train delays based on the railway network status," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 0, pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v::y::i::d:10.1007_s13198-020-01002-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-020-01002-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zarezadeh, Somayeh & Asadi, Majid, 2019. "Coherent systems subject to multiple shocks with applications to preventative maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 124-132.
    2. Majeske, Karl D., 2007. "A non-homogeneous Poisson process predictive model for automobile warranty claims," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 243-251.
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