IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ijsaem/v9y2018i5d10.1007_s13198-018-0724-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk scenario prediction for sudden water pollution accidents based on Bayesian networks

Author

Listed:
  • Tiejun Cheng

    (Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications)

  • Panpan Wang

    (Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications)

  • Qianyi Lu

    (Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications)

Abstract

Predicting and analyzing the future possible scenario of the sudden water pollution accident can help emergency managers to get know the possible future of the accident and make response. In this paper, the Bayesian Network (BN) is extended to support emergency decision for sudden water pollution accidents. Three types of node variables for BN are built according to the characteristics of sudden water pollution accident. Then, the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is constructed to connect the variables. Through Estimating of the conditional probability of BN, the possible scenario of sudden water pollution accident can be formed based DAG and BN. Finally, the Longjiang River cadmium pollution in Guangxi Province is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method. The results show that the BN can give the possible scenario of the sudden pollution accident and can help emergency managers to make detailed alternatives further to minimize the losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiejun Cheng & Panpan Wang & Qianyi Lu, 2018. "Risk scenario prediction for sudden water pollution accidents based on Bayesian networks," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 9(5), pages 1165-1177, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:9:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s13198-018-0724-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-018-0724-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13198-018-0724-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13198-018-0724-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Managi, Shunsuke & Kaneko, Shinji, 2009. "Environmental performance and returns to pollution abatement in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1643-1651, April.
    2. Reddy, V. Ratna & Behera, Bhagirath, 2006. "Impact of water pollution on rural communities: An economic analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 520-537, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuping Deng & Helian Xu, 2015. "International Direct Investment and Transboundary Pollution: An Empirical Analysis of Complex Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    2. H. L. Zou & R. C. Zeng & S. X. Zeng & Jonathan J. Shi, 2015. "How Do Environmental Violation Events Harm Corporate Reputation?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(8), pages 836-854, December.
    3. Xian, Yujiao & Hu, Zhihui & Wang, Ke, 2023. "The least-cost abatement measure of carbon emissions for China's glass manufacturing industry based on the marginal abatement costs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    4. Bhagirath Behera & Pulak Mishra, 2018. "Democratic Local Institutions for Sustainable Management and Use of Minor Irrigation Systems: Experience of Pani Panchayats in Odisha, India," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(03), pages 1-27, July.
    5. Halkos, George & Argyropoulou, Georgia, 2022. "Using environmental indicators in performance evaluation of sustainable development health goals," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Martine AUDIBERT, 2008. "Endemic diseases and agricultural productivity: Challenges and policy response," Working Papers 200823, CERDI.
    7. Behera, Bhagirath & Rahut, Dil Bahadur & Sethi, Narayan, 2020. "Analysis of household access to drinking water, sanitation, and waste disposal services in urban areas of Nepal," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Hidemichi Fujii & Jing Cao & Shunsuke Managi, 2015. "Decomposition of Productivity Considering Multi-environmental Pollutants in Chinese Industrial Sector," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 75-84, February.
    9. X. D. Xu & S. X. Zeng & H. L. Zou & Jonathan J. Shi, 2016. "The Impact of Corporate Environmental Violation on Shareholders' Wealth: a Perspective Taken from Media Coverage," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 73-91, February.
    10. Li, Gang, 2020. "Trade and the equivalence between environmental tax and quota," MPRA Paper 103463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Xing-Yun Zou & Xin-Yu Peng & Xin-Xin Zhao & Chun-Ping Chang, 2023. "The impact of extreme weather events on water quality: international evidence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 1-21, January.
    12. Jennifer Franz & Felix R. FitzRoy, 2005. "Child mortaility, poverty and environment in developing countries," Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics and Finance 200518, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews.
    13. Mahanta, Ratul & Chowdhury, Jayashree & Nath, Hiranya K., 2016. "Health costs of arsenic contamination of drinking water in Assam, India," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 30-42.
    14. Fujii, Hidemichi & Kaneko, Shinji & Managi, Shunsuke, 2010. "Changes in environmentally sensitive productivity and technological modernization in China's iron and steel industry in the 1990s," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 485-504, August.
    15. Martine Audibert, 2011. "Endemic diseases and agricultural productivity: Challenges and policy response," CERDI Working papers halshs-00563389, HAL.
    16. Min Qian & Zhenpeng Cheng & Zhengwen Wang & Dingyi Qi, 2022. "What Affects Rural Ecological Environment Governance Efficiency? Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-19, May.
    17. Srinivasan, Jeena T. & Reddy, V. Ratna, 2009. "Impact of irrigation water quality on human health: A case study in India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2800-2807, September.
    18. Lin Tang & Xiaofeng Luo & Yanzhong Huang & Sanxia Du & Aqian Yan, 2023. "Can smartphone use increase farmers’ willingness to participate in the centralized treatment of rural domestic sewage? Evidence from rural China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3379-3403, April.
    19. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for water pollution: Do regions matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 12-23, January.
    20. Huijie Yan, 2015. "The Integration of Energy, Environment and Health Policies in China: A Review," Working Papers halshs-01247183, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:9:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s13198-018-0724-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.