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Applying the AHP to Conflict Resolution: A Russia—NATO Case Study

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel C. Minutolo

    (Robert Morris University)

  • Luis G. Vargas

    (University of Pittsburgh)

  • Amos N. Guiora

    (University of Utah)

  • Madhury Ray

    (International Center for Conflict Resolution)

Abstract

In this paper, we apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process approach to conflict resolution in the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. We build models that illustrate the evaluation criteria, strategic and sub-criteria, and concessions for each party in this negotiation. Ratings are used to evaluate the degree to which concessions contribute or take away from successful resolution of the conflict. Afterwards, gain ratios are built to determine the benefit-cost scores so that concessions may be traded that result in equitable solutions. The approach presented here demonstrates for the first time why all concessions that parties to a conflict may offer might not trade all at once. A Max–Min optimization approach is used to maximize the gain to both parties of the conflict while minimizing the disparity in gain between the two.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel C. Minutolo & Luis G. Vargas & Amos N. Guiora & Madhury Ray, 2023. "Applying the AHP to Conflict Resolution: A Russia—NATO Case Study," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 147-176, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:grdene:v:32:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10726-022-09803-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10726-022-09803-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vlad Mykhnenko, 2020. "Causes and Consequences of the War in Eastern Ukraine: An Economic Geography Perspective," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(3), pages 528-560, March.
    2. Thomas L. Saaty & Luis G. Vargas, 2012. "A New Approach to the Middle East Conflict: The Analytic Hierarchy Process," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Models, Methods, Concepts & Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 203-247, Springer.
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