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COVID-19 pandemic and the exchange rate movements: evidence from six major COVID-19 hot spots

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  • Aamir Jamal

    (University of Kashmir)

  • Mudaser Ahad Bhat

    (Cluster University-ASC)

Abstract

The study’s primary objective is to unravel the nexus between the COVID-19 crisis and the exchange rate movements in the six major COVID-19 hot spots—Brazil, China, India, Italy, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. The impact of the COVID-19 deaths on the Rupee/USD, Pound/USD, Yuan/USD, Real/USD, Lira/USD, and Euro/USD exchange rates is analyzed by using the panel ARDL model. The COVID-19 deaths are used as a proxy for market expectations. The panel ARDL model showed a unidirectional long-run causality running from the COVID-19 deaths to the exchange rate. In fact, the coefficient of COVID-19 deaths is positive and significant in explaining the exchange rate(s) in the long run. This result meets the a-priori expectation that a rise in COVID-19 deaths can depreciate the sample countries’ exchange rates. The reason being, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has changed the market expectations of the financial market participants about the future value of exchange rate(s) in the major COVID-19 hot spots. Therefore, countries experiencing a sharp daily rise in COVID-19 deaths typically saw their currencies weaken.

Suggested Citation

  • Aamir Jamal & Mudaser Ahad Bhat, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and the exchange rate movements: evidence from six major COVID-19 hot spots," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:futbus:v:8:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1186_s43093-022-00126-8
    DOI: 10.1186/s43093-022-00126-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Palwishah, Rana & Kashif, Muhammad & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2024. "Asymmetric liquidity risk and currency returns before and during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Hossein Tarighi & Grzegorz Zimon & Mohammad Javad Sheikh & Mohammad Sayrani, 2024. "The Impact of Firm Risk and the COVID-19 Crisis on Working Capital Management Strategies: Evidence from a Market Affected by Economic Uncertainty," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-33, April.
    3. Karamti, Chiraz & Jeribi, Ahmed, 2023. "Stock markets from COVID-19 to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Structural breaks in interactive effects panels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    4. Lu, Changrong & Li, Jiaxiang & Liu, Lian & Yu, Fandi, 2023. "Spillover effect of the RMB and Non-USD currencies after the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence captured from 30-minute high frequency data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 527-552.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Exchange rate; Asset-market approach; Panel ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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