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A chaotic approach to interest rate modelling

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  • Lane Hughston
  • Avraam Rafailidis

Abstract

This paper presents a new approach to interest rate dynamics. We consider the general family of arbitrage-free positive interest rate models, valid on all time horizons, in the case of a discount bond system driven by a Brownian motion of one or more dimensions. We show that the space of such models admits a canonical mapping to the space of square-integrable Wiener functionals. This is achieved by means of a conditional variance representation for the state price density. The Wiener chaos expansion technique is then used to formulate a systematic analysis of the structure and classification of interest rate models. We show that the specification of a first-chaos model is equivalent to the specification of an admissible initial yield curve. A comprehensive development of the second-chaos interest rate theory is presented in the case of a single Brownian factor, and we show that there is a natural methodology for calibrating the model to at-the-money-forward caplet prices. The factorisable second-chaos models are particularly tractable, and lead to closed-form expressions for options on bonds and for swaptions. In conclusion we outline a general “international” model for interest rates and foreign exchange, for which each currency admits an associated family of discount bonds, and show that the entire system can be generated by a vector of Wiener functionals. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Lane Hughston & Avraam Rafailidis, 2005. "A chaotic approach to interest rate modelling," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 43-65, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:9:y:2005:i:1:p:43-65
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-004-0135-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jirô Akahori & Takahiro Tsuchiya, 2006. "What is the Natural Scale for a Lévy Process in Modelling Term Structure of Interest Rates?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(4), pages 299-313, December.
    2. Andrea Macrina & Obeid Mahomed, 2018. "Consistent Valuation Across Curves Using Pricing Kernels," Papers 1801.04994, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    3. Chian, Abraham C.-L. & Rempel, Erico L. & Rogers, Colin, 2006. "Complex economic dynamics: Chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1194-1218.
    4. Stephane Crepey & Andrea Macrina & Tuyet Mai Nguyen & David Skovmand, 2015. "Rational Multi-Curve Models with Counterparty-Risk Valuation Adjustments," Papers 1502.07397, arXiv.org.
    5. Guillaume Bernis & Simone Scotti, 2017. "Alternative to beta coefficients in the context of diffusions," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 275-288, February.
    6. Jiro Akahori & Yuji Hishida & Josef Teichmann & Takahiro Tsuchiya, 2009. "A Heat Kernel Approach to Interest Rate Models," Papers 0910.5033, arXiv.org.
    7. Andrea Macrina & Obeid Mahomed, 2018. "Consistent Valuation Across Curves Using Pricing Kernels," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-39, March.
    8. Matheus R Grasselli & Tsunehiro Tsujimoto, 2011. "Calibration of Chaotic Models for Interest Rates," Papers 1106.2478, arXiv.org.

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