IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/fininn/v9y2023i1d10.1186_s40854-022-00407-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric relationship between global and national factors and domestic food prices: evidence from Turkey with novel nonlinear approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Mustafa Tevfik Kartal

    (Borsa Istanbul Strategic Planning, Financial Reporting, and Investor Relations Directorate)

  • Özer Depren

    (Yapı Kredi Bank Customer Experience Research Lab.)

Abstract

This study investigates the asymmetric relationship between global and national factors and domestic food prices in Turkey, considering the recent rapid and continuous increase in domestic food prices. In this context, six global and three national explanatory variables were included, and monthly data for the period from January 2004 to June 2021 were used. In addition, novel nonlinear time-series econometric approaches, such as wavelet coherence, Granger causality in quantiles, and quantile-on-quantile regression, were applied for examination at different times, frequencies, and quantiles. Moreover, the Toda-Yamamoto (TY) causality test and quantile regression (QR) approach were used for robustness checks. The empirical results revealed that (i) there is a significant relationship between domestic food prices and explanatory variables at different times and frequencies; (ii) a causal relationship exists in most quantiles, excluding the lowest quantile, some middle quantiles, and the highest quantile for some variables; (iii) the power of the effect of the explanatory variables on domestic food prices varies according to the quantiles; and (iv) the results were validated by the TY causality test and QR, which show that the results were robust. Overall, the empirical results reveal that global and national factors have an asymmetric relationship with domestic food prices, highlighting the effects of fluctuations in global and national variables on domestic food prices. Thus, the results imply that Turkish policymakers should consider the asymmetric effects of global and national factors on domestic food prices at different times, frequencies, and quantiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Özer Depren, 2023. "Asymmetric relationship between global and national factors and domestic food prices: evidence from Turkey with novel nonlinear approaches," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:9:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-022-00407-9
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-022-00407-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40854-022-00407-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40854-022-00407-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.
    2. Wen, Jun & Khalid, Samia & Mahmood, Hamid & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2021. "Symmetric and asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on food prices in China: A new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Kalle Hirvonen, 2016. "Temperature Changes, Household Consumption, and Internal Migration: Evidence from Tanzania," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1230-1249.
    4. Dercon, Stefan, 2004. "Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 309-329, August.
    5. Dervis Kirikkaleli, 2021. "Analyses of wavelet coherence: financial risk and economic risk in China," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(5), pages 587-599, February.
    6. Kou, Gang & Yüksel, Serhat & Dinçer, Hasan, 2022. "Inventive problem-solving map of innovative carbon emission strategies for solar energy-based transportation investment projects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    7. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    8. Anthony Louis D'Agostino & Wolfram Schlenker, 2016. "Recent weather fluctuations and agricultural yields: implications for climate change," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(S1), pages 159-171, November.
    9. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2006. "Nonlinear Effects of Weather on Corn Yields ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 391-398.
    10. Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.
    11. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    12. Kara, Engin, 2017. "Does US monetary policy respond to oil and food prices?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 118-126.
    13. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O. & Oyewole, Oluwatomisin J. & Akanni, Lateef O., 2017. "Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: The role of asymmetries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 97-106.
    14. Özer Depren & Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Serpil Kılıç Depren, 2021. "Recent innovation in benchmark rates (BMR): evidence from influential factors on Turkish Lira Overnight Reference Interest Rate with machine learning algorithms," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, December.
    15. Bente Castro Campos, 2020. "Are there asymmetric relations between real interest rates and agricultural commodity prices? Testing for threshold effects of US real interest rates and adjusted wheat, corn, and soybean prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 371-394, July.
    16. Hasan Murat Ertuğrul & Ünal Seven, 2023. "Dynamic spillover analysis of international and Turkish food prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1918-1928, April.
    17. Hasan Murat Ertuğrul, 2021. "The local currency oil price and food price relationship for Turkey: a dynamic correlation and time-frequency dependency analysis," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(3), pages 233-248.
    18. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 796-806.
    19. Zhang, Huanhuan & Kou, Gang & Peng, Yi, 2019. "Soft consensus cost models for group decision making and economic interpretations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 964-980.
    20. Baffes, John & Dennis, Allen, 2013. "Long-term drivers of food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6455, The World Bank.
    21. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Ibrahim Darbaz, 2021. "The Causal Linkage between Energy Price and Food Price," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-13, July.
    22. Victor Troster, 2018. "Testing for Granger-causality in quantiles," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 850-866, September.
    23. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2019. "Correlation dynamics of crude oil with agricultural commodities: A comparison between energy and food crops," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 453-466.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Ghosh, Sudeshna & Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, 2023. "Renewable energy effect on economy and environment: The case of G7 countries through novel bootstrap rolling window approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Ugur Korkut Pata & Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Zahoor Ahmed & Avik Sinha, 2025. "Relationship between green bonds and carbon neutrality: evidence from top five emitting countries’ sectoral CO2 emissions," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, December.
    3. Foued Hamouda & Imran Yousaf & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem, 2024. "Exploring the Dynamics of Equity and Cryptocurrency Markets: Fresh Evidence from the Russia–Ukraine War," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(6), pages 3555-3576, December.
    4. Kübra Akyol Özcan, 2023. "Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. İbrahim Özmen & Şerife Özşahin, 2023. "Effects of global energy and price fluctuations on Turkey's inflation: new evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2695-2728, August.
    2. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2022. "Dynamic correlation between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1798-1849, August.
    3. Teresa Janz & Gassmann,Franziska & de Ervin,Lyliana Gayoso, 2024. "Weathering Shocks : Unraveling the Effects of Short-Term Weather Shocks on Poverty in Paraguay," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10970, The World Bank.
    4. Mustafa Kocoglu & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Ashar Awan & So Young Lim, 2023. "Time-varying causality between oil price and exchange rate in five ASEAN economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1007-1031, April.
    5. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    6. Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Guillaume Pierre, 2022. "Weather shocks, traders' expectations, and food prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(3), pages 1100-1119, May.
    7. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    8. Hung, Ngo Thai, 2023. "Green investment, financial development, digitalization and economic sustainability in Vietnam: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile regression and wavelet coherence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    9. Cheng, Ya & Sinha, Avik & Ghosh, Vinit & Sengupta, Tuhin & Luo, Huawei, 2021. "Carbon Tax and Energy Innovation at Crossroads of Carbon Neutrality: Designing a Sustainable Decarbonization Policy," MPRA Paper 108185, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
    10. Nikita Moiseev & Alexey Mikhaylov & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel, 2023. "Market capitalization shock effects on open innovation models in e-commerce: golden cut q-rung orthopair fuzzy multicriteria decision-making analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Muhammad Umar & Abraham Ayobamiji Awosusi & Oluwatayomi Rereloluwa Adegboye & Opeoluwa Seun Ojekemi, 2024. "Geothermal energy and carbon emissions nexus in leading geothermal-consuming nations: Evidence from nonparametric analysis," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(5), pages 2726-2752, August.
    12. Alexey Mikhaylov & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel, 2023. "Analysis of financial development and open innovation oriented fintech potential for emerging economies using an integrated decision-making approach of MF-X-DMA and golden cut bipolar q-ROFSs," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.
    13. Cai, Yifei & Chang, Hao-Wen & Xiang, Feiyun & Chang, Tsangyao, 2023. "Can precious metals hedge the risks of Sino–US political relation?–Evidence from Toda–Yamamoto causality test in quantiles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    14. Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek & Soytas, Ugur & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2020. "Financial development and energy consumption in emerging markets: Smooth structural shifts and causal linkages," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    15. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Yiying & yan, Cheng & Wen, Fenghua & Lu, Zudi, 2022. "The interrelationship between the carbon market and the green bonds market: Evidence from wavelet quantile-on-quantile method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    16. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Yousaf, Imran & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral & Li, Yanshuang, 2024. "Economic sanctions sentiment and global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Su, Chi-Wei & Huang, Shi-Wen & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Does crude oil price stimulate economic policy uncertainty in BRICS?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    18. Muhammad Asif Qureshi & Jawaid Ahmed Qureshi & Ammar Ahmed & Shahzad Qaiser & Ramsha Ali & Arshian Sharif, 2020. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Technology Innovation and Human Development in Technologically Advanced Countries: Fresh Insights from Quantiles-on-Quantile Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 555-580, November.
    19. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    20. Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Ugur Korkut Pata, 2023. "The Function of Geopolitical Risk on Carbon Neutrality Under the Shadow of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from Russia's Sectoral CO2 Emissions by High-Frequency Data and Quantile-Based Methods," Journal of Sustainable Development Issues (JOSDI), SDIjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Domestic food prices; Global factors; National factors; Nonlinear approaches; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:9:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-022-00407-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.