IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/fininn/v6y2020i1d10.1186_s40854-020-00196-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decision making on financial investment in Turkey by using ARDL long-term coefficients and AHP

Author

Listed:
  • Serkan Atmaca

    (Sivas Cumhuriyet University)

  • Hacı Ahmet Karadaş

    (Sivas Cumhuriyet University)

Abstract

Mathematical modeling methods are frequently used for solving everyday problems. Decision making, one such method, can be used in every aspect of life for different scales such as micro (households), medium (companies), and macro (states) decisions. Due to the large number of parameters affecting decision, it is possible to make mistakes in the selection of the appropriate investment instrument with classical methods; hence, scarce resources may be wasted, and sometimes it may even be impossible to make a decision. This study seeks to answer the question “Which financial investment instrument should be selected under the current conditions?” using decision making problems. Factors affecting gold, USD, and EURO, which are selected as the financial investment instruments in Turkey, are examined using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test. The selected variables are monthly and belong to the January 2009 to May 2018 period. The ARDL results show that the selected financial investment instruments are affected by most of the factors separately. By using the coefficients obtained from the ARDL model, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model was established. According to the results of the model, the EURO was determined as the most suitable financial investment for Ahmet and others with the same preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Serkan Atmaca & Hacı Ahmet Karadaş, 2020. "Decision making on financial investment in Turkey by using ARDL long-term coefficients and AHP," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:6:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-020-00196-z
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-020-00196-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40854-020-00196-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40854-020-00196-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. E. Bellman & L. A. Zadeh, 1970. "Decision-Making in a Fuzzy Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 141-164, December.
    2. Rajagopal, 2014. "The Human Factors," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Architecting Enterprise, chapter 9, pages 225-249, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01618347, HAL.
    4. Wei, Chun-Chin & Chien, Chen-Fu & Wang, Mao-Jiun J., 2005. "An AHP-based approach to ERP system selection," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 47-62, April.
    5. Jim Fischer, 2019. "Modern Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis: How well did they serve Canada?s baby-boom generation?," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 9511941, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    8. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Post-Print hal-01618347, HAL.
    11. Wang, Ying-Ming & Luo, Ying & Hua, Zhongsheng, 2008. "On the extent analysis method for fuzzy AHP and its applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 735-747, April.
    12. Katarzyna Twarowska & Magdalena Kakol, 2014. "Analysis of Factors Affecting Fluctuations in the Exchange Rate of Polish Zloty Against Euro," Human Capital without Borders: Knowledge and Learning for Quality of Life; Proceedings of the Management, Knowledge and Learning International Conference 2014,, ToKnowPress.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Tevfik KARTAL & Özer DEPREN & Serpil KILIC DEPREN, 2021. "Do Monetary Policy Measures Affect Foreign Exchange Rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from Turkey," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 15(2), pages 175-202.
    2. Hasan Murat Ertuğrul & Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Serpil Kılıç Depren & Uğur Soytaş, 2022. "Determinants of Electricity Prices in Turkey: An Application of Machine Learning and Time Series Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Kuang-Hua Hu & Fu-Hsiang Chen & Ming-Fu Hsu & Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng, 2023. "Governance of artificial intelligence applications in a business audit via a fusion fuzzy multiple rule-based decision-making model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, December.
    4. Lihuan Guo & Wei Wang & Yenchun Jim Wu & Mark Goh, 2021. "How much do social connections matter in fundraising outcomes?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Li, Yanhong & Kou, Gang & Li, Guangxu & Peng, Yi, 2022. "Consensus reaching process in large-scale group decision making based on bounded confidence and social network," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(2), pages 790-802.
    6. Pranith Kumar Roy & Krishnendu Shaw, 2021. "A multicriteria credit scoring model for SMEs using hybrid BWM and TOPSIS," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    7. Hway-Boon Ong & Lee-Lee Chong, 2023. "The effect of cashless payments on the internet and mobile banking," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(1), pages 178-188, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    2. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi & Chan Bibi & Yannick Roussel, 2021. "The Impact of Gender Inequality and Environmental Degradation on Human Well-being in the Case of Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 92-99.
    3. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    4. De Vita, G. & Endresen, K. & Hunt, L.C., 2006. "An empirical analysis of energy demand in Namibia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3447-3463, December.
    5. Ahmed Raza ul MUSTAFA* & Mohammad NISHAT**, 2017. "ROLE OF SOCIAL PROTECTION IN POVERTY REDUCTION IN PAKISTAN: A Quantitative Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 67-88.
    6. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas, 1995. "Cointegration and market efficiency: a time series analysis of the Greek drachma," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 271-277.
    7. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Muhammad Shafiullah & Faridul Islam & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2020. "The Harberger–Laursen–Metzler effect: evidence from five SAARC countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1749-1777, April.
    9. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad, 2017. "Socio-Economic Development, Demographic Changes And Total Labor Productivity In Pakistan: A Co-Integrational and Decomposition Analysis," MPRA Paper 82435, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2017.
    10. Muzammil, Muhammad, 2015. "Impact of Financial Development on Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration and Causality Approach for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 68587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Marc Audi & Amjad Ali, 2016. "A Causality and Co-integration Analysis of Some Selected Socio-Economic Determinants of Fertility: Empirics from Tunisia," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(1), pages 20-36, March.
    12. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    13. Aviral Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity for India using threshold cointegration and nonlinear unit root test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 117-133, May.
    14. Abdul Jalil & Samia Manan & Sundus Saleemi, 2016. "Estimating the growth effects of services sector: a cointegration analysis for Pakistan," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Pan, Lei & Mishra, Vinod, 2018. "Stock market development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 661-673.
    16. Pourazarm, Elham & Cooray, Arusha, 2013. "Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 546-558.
    17. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    18. Wu, Ziping & Merlean, Seamus, 2003. "Market efficiency in the reformed Chinese grain marketing system," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 115-130.
    19. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption," MPRA Paper 116097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:6:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-020-00196-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.