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The dynamics of financial stability in complex networks

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  • J. Cruz
  • P. Lind

Abstract

We address the problem of banking system resilience by applying off-equilibrium statistical physics to a system of particles, representing the economic agents, modelled according to the theoretical foundation of the current banking regulation, the so called Merton-Vasicek model. Economic agents are attracted to each other to exchange ‘economic energy’, forming a network of trades. When the capital level of one economic agent drops below a minimum, the economic agent becomes insolvent. The insolvency of one single economic agent affects the economic energy of all its neighbours which thus become susceptible to insolvency, being able to trigger a chain of insolvencies (avalanche). We show that the distribution of avalanche sizes follows a power-law whose exponent depends on the minimum capital level. Furthermore, we present evidence that under an increase in the minimum capital level, large crashes will be avoided only if one assumes that agents will accept a drop in business levels, while keeping their trading attitudes and policies unchanged. The alternative assumption, that agents will try to restore their business levels, may lead to the unexpected consequence that large crises occur with higher probability. Copyright EDP Sciences, SIF, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Suggested Citation

  • J. Cruz & P. Lind, 2012. "The dynamics of financial stability in complex networks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 85(8), pages 1-9, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurphb:v:85:y:2012:i:8:p:1-9:10.1140/epjb/e2012-20984-6
    DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2012-20984-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wenzel, Tina, 2009. "Beyond GDP - Measuring the Wealth of Nations," MPRA Paper 87288, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Feb 2009.
    2. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2003. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819169, January.
    3. Mr. Roberto Piazza, 2010. "Growth and Crisis, Unavoidable Connection?," IMF Working Papers 2010/267, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Lisa Borland & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Jean-Francois Muzy & Gilles Zumbach, 2005. "The Dynamics of Financial Markets -- Mandelbrot's multifractal cascades, and beyond," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500061, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chong, You Quan & Wang, Bin & Yue Tan, Gladys Li & Cheong, Siew Ann, 2014. "Diversified firms on dynamical supply chain cope with financial crisis better," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 239-245.
    2. Spiros Bougheas & Alan Kirman, 2015. "Complex Financial Networks and Systemic Risk: A Review," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Pasquale Commendatore & Saime Kayam & Ingrid Kubin (ed.), Complexity and Geographical Economics, edition 127, pages 115-139, Springer.
    3. Qianqian Gao & Hong Fan, 2020. "Macroprudential regulation for a dynamic Chinese banking system with a scale-free network," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(3), pages 579-611, July.
    4. Lee, Byung Kwon & Zhou, Rong & de Souza, Robert & Park, Jaehun, 2016. "Data-driven risk measurement of firm-to-firm relationships in a supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 148-157.
    5. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

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