IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurase/v14y2024i3d10.1007_s40822-024-00275-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An empirical examination of the effect of domestic monetary policy on external commercial borrowings to India

Author

Listed:
  • Virender Kumar

    (Delhi Technological University)

  • Poonam

    (University of Delhi)

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the effect of domestic monetary policy shock on external commercial borrowings (ECBs) to India for the period 2000:Q2 to 2019:Q4. The impact of domestic monetary policy shock on ECBs is assessed using two variables: interest rate differential and domestic money supply growth. The paper employs a structural VAR model and utilizes impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analysis to derive empirical results. The empirical results based on impulse response functions indicate that the interest rate differential has a positively significant effect on external commercial borrowings to India, while the effect of domestic money supply growth is found to be negative. The forecast error variance decomposition analysis indicates that the interest rate differential explains about 14.6% and domestic money supply growth explains about 2% of the total variation in external commercial borrowings, implying that domestic monetary policy variables together explain about 16.6% of the total variation in ECBs to India. The results suggest that the central bank, through monetary policy interventions, can influence and manage the flow of external commercial borrowings to India. Furthermore, the study finds that the exchange rate, domestic industrial activity, domestic output growth, domestic country’s creditworthiness, and domestic macroeconomic instability are other significant determinants of external commercial borrowings.

Suggested Citation

  • Virender Kumar & Poonam, 2024. "An empirical examination of the effect of domestic monetary policy on external commercial borrowings to India," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 641-661, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:14:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s40822-024-00275-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s40822-024-00275-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40822-024-00275-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40822-024-00275-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    2. Sur, Abhisek & Ray, Partha & Nandy, Amarendu, 2019. "India’s external commercial borrowing: Pulled by domestic fundamentals or pushed by global conditions?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 65-77.
    3. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2020. "Why do Indian Firms Borrow in Foreign Currency?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(2), pages 191-211, May.
    4. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-1599, November.
    5. Yongseung Han & Myeong Hwan Kim, 2023. "Monetary shocks on the Korean stock index: structural VAR analysis," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(1), pages 85-102, March.
    6. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay & Singh, Nirvikar, 2016. "Foreign Currency Borrowing by Indian Firms: Toward a New Policy Framework," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 139-186.
    7. Kouri, Pentti J K & Porter, Michael G, 1974. "International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 443-467, May/June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    2. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    3. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Gimet, Céline, 2013. "The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4599-4614.
    4. Josifidis, Kosta & Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Gimet, Céline & Pucar, Emilija Beker, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 577-591.
    5. Céline Gimet, 2009. "The spread of international financial shocks to Asean countries," Post-Print halshs-00464216, HAL.
    6. Marie‐Hélène Gagnon & Céline Gimet, 2023. "One size may not fit all: Financial fragmentation and European monetary policies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 305-340, February.
    7. Andrea Bonilla, 2014. "External vulnerabilities and economic integration. Is the Union of South American Nations a promising project ?," Working Papers halshs-00945044, HAL.
    8. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yong Yang, 2014. "Do Capital Inflows Matter to Asset Prices? The Case of Korea," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Kyuil Chung & Soyoung Kim & Hail Park & Changho Choi & Hyun Song Shin (ed.), Volatile Capital Flows in Korea, chapter 3, pages 51-82, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Kim, Soyoung & Shin, Hyun Song, 2021. "Offshore EME bond issuance and the transmission channels of global liquidity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    10. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    11. Marie‐Helene Gagnon & Celine Gimet, 2020. "Unconventional economic policies and sentiment: An international assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1544-1591, June.
    12. Cinzia Alcidi, 2009. "The Effect of Equity Market Integration on the Transmission Monetary Policy. Evidence from Australia," IHEID Working Papers 03-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2016. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
    14. Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Leaning into the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 597-621, October.
    15. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-037 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kim, Soyoung & Yang, Doo Yong, 2008. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Emerging East Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 15, Asian Development Bank.
    17. Katerina Arnostova & Jaromir Hurnik, 2005. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic (evidence from VAR analysis)," Working Papers 2005/04, Czech National Bank.
    18. Andrea Bonilla Bolanos, 2014. "External Vulnerabilities And Economic Integration: Is The Union Of South American Nations A Promising Project?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 97-131, June.
    19. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yang, 2011. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 293-315, April.
    20. Céline Gimet, 2009. "The spread of international financial schocks on East Asian Countries," Post-Print halshs-00450825, HAL.
    21. Wei Sun & Lian An, 2011. "Dynamics of floating exchange rate: how important are capital flows relative to macroeconomic fundamentals?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 456-472, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; External Commercial Borrowings; Interest rate differential; SVAR; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:14:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s40822-024-00275-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.