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Vaccination or NPI? A conjoint analysis of German citizens' preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Jacques Bughin

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles
    MachaonAdvisory
    FortinoCapital
    Antler)

  • Michele Cincera

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • Evelyn Kiepfer

    (ISM Global Dynamics)

  • Dorota Reykowska

    (Neurohm)

  • Florian Philippi

    (ISM Global Dynamics)

  • Marcin Żyszkiewicz

    (Neurohm)

  • Rafal Ohme

    (Neurohm
    WSB University)

  • Dirk Frank

    (ISM Global Dynamics
    University of Applied Sciences Pforzheim)

Abstract

This research uses discrete choice-based conjoint analysis that elicits the preference structure of German citizens when it comes to their timely intention to vaccinate. The focus is on the trade-offs between pharmaceuticals (vaccine) and "non-pharmaceutical interventions" (NPIs) such as lock-downs and social distancing measures, as well as the value of voluntary versus mandatory compliance to the citizens. Our results highlight three critical insights: (a) value of waiting: at 70% effective vaccine, 1/3 of citizens still would prefer to be vaccinated in the next 6 months rather than immediately; (b) costs of NPI constraints: an effective vaccine may come as a solution to compensate for the costs induced by invasive NPI imposed for an extended period; (c) freedom of choice: voluntary compliance is preferred by citizens over imposed measures whether it relates to vaccination choice, lock-down measures, or work location choice during the pandemic. Backing up those findings in monetary value, a quick shot of a 100% effective vaccination is estimated to be worth in the range of 11,400€. Still, the value of the shot quickly falls to no value when effectiveness drops below 50. At the same time, the cost of imposing protective rules lies in the range of 1500–2500€, depending on the rule analyzed. In comparison, the burden of extra complete lock-down and social distancing is about 775€ per citizen per month. As most current vaccines are being proven to have high efficacy, a strategy that selects the most effective vaccine candidates while emphasizing how the vaccine may stop the pain of lasting lock-downs will be appropriate to nudge the population towards vaccination. Control measures that are too restrictive may be welfare-deteriorating, but enough NPI measures must be recommended as long as vaccination adoption is not sufficiently large.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Bughin & Michele Cincera & Evelyn Kiepfer & Dorota Reykowska & Florian Philippi & Marcin Żyszkiewicz & Rafal Ohme & Dirk Frank, 2023. "Vaccination or NPI? A conjoint analysis of German citizens' preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 39-52, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:24:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10198-022-01450-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10198-022-01450-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacques Bughin & Michele Cincera & Dorota Reykowska & Rafal Ohme, 2021. "Big Data is Decision Science: the Case of Covid-19 Vaccination," Working Papers TIMES² 2021-047, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Jacques Bughin & Michele Cincera & Kelly Peters & Dorota Reykowska & Marcin Zyszkiewicz & Rafal Ohme, 2021. "Make it or Break it: Vaccination Intention at the Time of Covid-19," Working Papers TIMES² 2021-043, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Sebastian Neumann-Böhme & Nirosha Elsem Varghese & Iryna Sabat & Pedro Pita Barros & Werner Brouwer & Job Exel & Jonas Schreyögg & Tom Stargardt, 2020. "Once we have it, will we use it? A European survey on willingness to be vaccinated against COVID-19," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(7), pages 977-982, September.
    4. Alam, Shahriar Tanvir & Ahmed, Sayem & Ali, Syed Mithun & Sarker, Sudipa & Kabir, Golam & ul-Islam, Asif, 2021. "Challenges to COVID-19 vaccine supply chain: Implications for sustainable development goals," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    5. McPhedran, Robert & Toombs, Ben, 2021. "Efficacy or delivery? An online Discrete Choice Experiment to explore preferences for COVID-19 vaccines in the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    7. Hainmueller, Jens & Hopkins, Daniel J. & Yamamoto, Teppei, 2014. "Causal Inference in Conjoint Analysis: Understanding Multidimensional Choices via Stated Preference Experiments," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-30, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Vaccine strategy; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Conjoint analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J33 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Compensation Packages; Payment Methods

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