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From representation via planning to action: an extension of Egon Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism

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  • Ulrich Hoffrage

    (University of Lausanne)

Abstract

Scholz (Environ Syst Decis, 2017) proposes how Brunswik’s lens model can be extended to account for planning of sustainable transitions of complex system. In this commentary, an alternative extension is proposed, according to which planning is seen as a process that unfolds in three steps. The first step can be understood with a model construction lens: a planning team builds a representation, that is, a model of a (distal) complex system. In a second step, modeled with a planning lens, the team contrasts its representation of the system with possible alternative states and simulates how the is-state could be transformed into an ought-state. In a third step, modeled with an implementation lens, the team selects and implements a set of actions, thereby leaving the “imaginary space” (Konrad Lorenz) and entering the real world. The commentary also discusses the relationship between the is-state and the ought-state (including the ways to get from one to the other; bottom-up and top-down), the usefulness of integrating research on group processes when modelling the planning phase, and ways to contrast the usefulness of various conceptualizations of the planning process on an empirical basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Hoffrage, 2018. "From representation via planning to action: an extension of Egon Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 69-73, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:38:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10669-017-9660-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-017-9660-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roland W. Scholz, 2017. "Managing complexity: from visual perception to sustainable transitions—contributions of Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 381-409, December.
    2. Torsten Reimer & Ulrich Hoffrage, 2006. "The Ecological Rationality of Simple Group Heuristics: Effects of Group Member Strategies on Decision Accuracy," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 403-438, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zachary A. Collier & James H. Lambert & Igor Linkov, 2018. "Resilience, sustainability, and complexity in social, environmental, and technical systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 1-2, March.
    2. Scholz, Roland W. & Zscheischler, Jana & Köckler, Heike & Czichos, Reiner & Hofmann, Klaus-Markus & Sindermann, Cornelia, 2024. "Transdisciplinary knowledge integration – PART I: Theoretical foundations and an organizational structure," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

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