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Assessing the effectiveness of adaptation against sea level rise in Japanese coastal areas: protection or relocation?

Author

Listed:
  • Makoto Tamura

    (Ibaraki University)

  • Kohei Imamura

    (Ibaraki University)

  • Naoko Kumano

    (Ehime University)

  • Hiromune Yokoki

    (Ibaraki University)

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change poses a serious threat to human populations in coastal areas. As a result, assessing the impacts of SLR and evaluating potential adaptations is essential. This study assesses the impacts of SLR and ocean tides on coastal Japanese prefectures by estimating the extent of potentially inundated areas, affected populations, and economic damages. The latest climate scenarios, tidal data, and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are used to estimate the SLR and its inundation effects at a resolution of 1 km. Economic damages are estimated following the methods outlined in the “Manual for economic evaluation of flood control investment (draft).” It was found that all impacts (inundated areas, affected populations, and economic damages) under RCP2.6-SSP1 are significantly smaller than those under RCP8.5-SSP5, suggesting the importance of mitigation efforts. In addition, the study evaluates the cost and effectiveness of protection and relocation adaptations using data on the cost of constructing dikes and the cost of relocating houses and infrastructure. While relocations due to SLR have not yet been undertaken in Japan, the relocation costs could be estimated based on the conventional scheme of community relocation for natural disasters such as life-threatening floods and tsunamis caused by major earthquakes. It was found that the costs of relocation can exceed those of protection under the current framework of Japanese relocation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Tamura & Kohei Imamura & Naoko Kumano & Hiromune Yokoki, 2024. "Assessing the effectiveness of adaptation against sea level rise in Japanese coastal areas: protection or relocation?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(9), pages 23561-23577, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03612-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03612-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S Fankhauser, 1995. "Protection versus Retreat: The Economic Costs of Sea-Level Rise," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 27(2), pages 299-319, February.
    2. Roy Darwin & Richard Tol, 2001. "Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 19(2), pages 113-129, June.
    3. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
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    5. Makoto Tamura & Naoko Kumano & Mizuki Yotsukuri & Hiromune Yokoki, 2019. "Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 363-377, March.
    6. Delavane B. Diaz, 2016. "Estimating global damages from sea level rise with the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 143-156, July.
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