IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v26y2024i9d10.1007_s10668-023-03612-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the effectiveness of adaptation against sea level rise in Japanese coastal areas: protection or relocation?

Author

Listed:
  • Makoto Tamura

    (Ibaraki University)

  • Kohei Imamura

    (Ibaraki University)

  • Naoko Kumano

    (Ehime University)

  • Hiromune Yokoki

    (Ibaraki University)

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change poses a serious threat to human populations in coastal areas. As a result, assessing the impacts of SLR and evaluating potential adaptations is essential. This study assesses the impacts of SLR and ocean tides on coastal Japanese prefectures by estimating the extent of potentially inundated areas, affected populations, and economic damages. The latest climate scenarios, tidal data, and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are used to estimate the SLR and its inundation effects at a resolution of 1 km. Economic damages are estimated following the methods outlined in the “Manual for economic evaluation of flood control investment (draft).” It was found that all impacts (inundated areas, affected populations, and economic damages) under RCP2.6-SSP1 are significantly smaller than those under RCP8.5-SSP5, suggesting the importance of mitigation efforts. In addition, the study evaluates the cost and effectiveness of protection and relocation adaptations using data on the cost of constructing dikes and the cost of relocating houses and infrastructure. While relocations due to SLR have not yet been undertaken in Japan, the relocation costs could be estimated based on the conventional scheme of community relocation for natural disasters such as life-threatening floods and tsunamis caused by major earthquakes. It was found that the costs of relocation can exceed those of protection under the current framework of Japanese relocation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Tamura & Kohei Imamura & Naoko Kumano & Hiromune Yokoki, 2024. "Assessing the effectiveness of adaptation against sea level rise in Japanese coastal areas: protection or relocation?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(9), pages 23561-23577, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03612-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03612-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-023-03612-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-023-03612-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    2. Delavane B. Diaz, 2016. "Estimating global damages from sea level rise with the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 143-156, July.
    3. S Fankhauser, 1995. "Protection versus Retreat: The Economic Costs of Sea-Level Rise," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 27(2), pages 299-319, February.
    4. Miyuki Hino & Christopher B. Field & Katharine J. Mach, 2017. "Managed retreat as a response to natural hazard risk," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 364-370, May.
    5. Roy Darwin & Richard Tol, 2001. "Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 19(2), pages 113-129, June.
    6. Makoto Tamura & Naoko Kumano & Mizuki Yotsukuri & Hiromune Yokoki, 2019. "Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 363-377, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramiro Parrado & Francesco Bosello & Elisa Delpiazzo & Jochen Hinkel & Daniel Lincke & Sally Brown, 2020. "Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 283-302, May.
    2. Makoto Tamura & Naoko Kumano & Mizuki Yotsukuri & Hiromune Yokoki, 2019. "Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 363-377, March.
    3. Si Ha & Hirokazu Tatano & Nobuhito Mori & Toshio Fujimi & Xinyu Jiang, 2021. "Cost–benefit analysis of adaptation to storm surge due to climate change in Osaka Bay, Japan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Steven A. McAlpine & Jeremy R. Porter, 2018. "Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade, Florida," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 871-895, December.
    5. Theodoros N. Chatzivasileiadis & Marjan W. Hofkes & Onno J. Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol, 2016. "Full economic impacts of sea level rise: loss of productive resources and transport disruptions," Working Paper Series 09916, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Lomborg, Bjorn, 2020. "Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Gasmi, Farid & Recuero Virto, Laura & Couvet, Denis, 2023. "An empirical analysis of economic growth in countries exposed to coastal risks: Implications for their ecosystems," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    8. Gabriel Bachner & Daniel Lincke & Jochen Hinkel, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Hirte, Georg & Nitzsche, Eric & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2018. "Optimal adaptation in cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-169.
    10. Vicki M. Bier & Yuqun Zhou & Hongru Du, 2020. "Game-theoretic modeling of pre-disaster relocation," The Engineering Economist, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 65(2), pages 89-113, April.
    11. Theodoros N. Chatzivasileiadis & Marjan W. Hofkes & Onno J. Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol, 2016. "Full economic impacts of sea level rise: loss of productive resources and transport disruptions," Working Paper Series 9916, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    12. Santosh R. Joshi & Marc Vielle & Frédéric Babonneau & Neil R. Edwards & Philip B. Holden, 2016. "Physical and Economic Consequences of Sea-Level Rise: A Coupled GIS and CGE Analysis Under Uncertainties," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(4), pages 813-839, December.
    13. Arun Rana & Qinhan Zhu & Annette Detken & Karina Whalley & Christelle Castet, 2022. "Strengthening climate-resilient development and transformation in Viet Nam," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-23, January.
    14. Farid Gasmi & Laura Recuero Virto & Denis Couvet, 2023. "An empirical analysis of economic growth in countries exposed to coastal risks: Implications for their ecosystems," Post-Print hal-04547896, HAL.
    15. Gasmi, Farid & Recuero Virto, Laura & Couvet, Denis, 2023. "An empirical analysis of economic growth in countries exposed to coastal risks - Implications for their ecosystems," TSE Working Papers 23-1399, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    16. Ming Li & Fan Zhang & Samuel Barnes & Xiaohong Wang, 2020. "Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2561-2588, September.
    17. Jonathan Pycroft & Jan Abrell & Juan-Carlos Ciscar, 2016. "The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(2), pages 225-253, June.
    18. Bosello, Francesco & De Cian, Enrica, 2014. "Climate change, sea level rise, and coastal disasters. A review of modeling practices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 593-605.
    19. Lilai Xu & Shengping Ding & Vilas Nitivattananon & Jianxiong Tang, 2021. "Long-Term Dynamic of Land Reclamation and Its Impact on Coastal Flooding: A Case Study in Xiamen, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
    20. Delavane B. Diaz, 2016. "Estimating global damages from sea level rise with the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 143-156, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03612-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.