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Foresight and forecasting of socio-economic development of rural territories

Author

Listed:
  • Vitaliy Kovshov

    (Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education “Bashkir State Agrarian University”)

  • Eugene Stovba

    (Birsk branch of Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education “Bashkir State University”)

  • Milyausha Lukyanova

    (Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education “Bashkir State Agrarian University”)

  • Zariya Zalilova

    (Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education “Bashkir State Agrarian University”)

  • Guzalia Sitdikova

    (Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education “Bashkir State Agrarian University”)

Abstract

The development of rural territorial formations is an actual direction of agro-economic science and an essential component of the state and society functioning. An unprecedented aggravation characterizes the modern context of agrarian economic development. The study aims to apply foresight to design target indicators reflecting the socio-economic development of rural territorial entities. The research actualizes the importance of foresight technologies used as an instrument for forming strategic priorities for developing rural territorial entities. The methodological features of the foresight technologies application are revealed, and the extreme values of target rural development indicators are designed using cluster displaying. Step-by-step algorithm for foresight research of rural development involved seven stages. Clustering of twenty-two rural territories was carried out according to five or six target indicators of economic development with the allocation of four clusters. The research results can be practically used for strategic planning and forecasting of the development of rural territorial formations. The main research results include the clarification of methodological provisions on foresight forecasting of the development of territorial entities at the regional level and the design of critical indicators and parameters reflecting the socio-economic development of rural territories. The paper shows that foresight application in the management practice of strategic planning contributes to improving the processes of making, implementing, and controlling decisions aimed at the harmonious and balanced economic and social development of rural territorial entities. A distinctive feature of foresight is the active interaction between experts, government, business and the population to coordinate actions and develop a common vision for the future development of rural territorial entities. The paper summarizes that the conclusions of foresight forecasting determine the “mainstream” directions for rural development.

Suggested Citation

  • Vitaliy Kovshov & Eugene Stovba & Milyausha Lukyanova & Zariya Zalilova & Guzalia Sitdikova, 2024. "Foresight and forecasting of socio-economic development of rural territories," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 28219-28237, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03808-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03808-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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