Projections of precipitation extremes over the Volta Basin: insight from CanESM2 regional climate model under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 forcing scenarios

Perturbations in extreme precipitation characteristics are investigated over the Volta Basin (VB) and its three subdomains (Sahel, Soudano-Sahel and Guinea Coast) for the early-21st (2030–2053) and mid-twenty-first centuries (2057–2080) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Seven climate indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were selected to examine future extreme precipitation features. Owing to its performance over the West African sub region, CanESM2 model results were used with Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC v7) dataset serving as reference data. Results generally show lowering trends in extreme precipitation events over the VB. The declines in extremes were dominant in the Sahel and Soudano-Sahel zones with some degree of upsurges observed in the Guinea Coast. Spatially over the basin, wet spells (CWD) were projected to shorten under RCP 8.5 (~ 7–27 days/year) relative to RCP 4.5 (~ 8–30 days/year). Similar pattern was observed for dry spells (CDD) with ranges of ~ 64–198 days/year and ~ 61–186 days/year respectively for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. As revealed, future alterations in precipitation events have the propensity to cause alternating drought or flood events. In this line, sustainable adaptation measures and coping strategies need to be devised in time to minimize the consequences of these events, particularly those on water resources availability and ecosystem functions and services.