IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v20y2018i1d10.1007_s10668-016-9872-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatio-temporal analysis of climatic variables in the western part of Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Md. Kamruzzaman

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • Md. Shakil Ahmed

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • Md. Enamul Kabir

    (University of Southern Queensland)

  • Quamrul Hasan Mazumder

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • M. Sayedur Rahman

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan

    (University of Rajshahi)

Abstract

Monitoring and detecting trends of climatic variables like rainfall and temperature are essential for agricultural developments in the context of climate change. The present study has detected trends in annual and cropping seasonal rainfall and temperature data for the period of 1961–2011 using Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s rho (SR) test and modified Mann–Kendall test that has been applied to the significant lag-1 serial correlated time series data, and slope has been estimated using Sen’s Slope estimator for twelve meteorological stations located in the western part of Bangladesh covering about 41 % of the country. Almost 71 % trends explored by MK test in annual rainfall are statistically insignificant, and SR test also complies it. The spatial distribution of rainfall trend shows insignificant positive trends in major part of the area. Significant positive trends both by MK test and by SR test at 95 % confidence levels are observed at rates of 8.56, 11.15 and 13.66 mm/year at Dinajpur, Rangpur and Khepupara stations, respectively, and the Kharif season rainfall of these stations also shows significant increasing trends except Dinajpur. On the other hand, significant decreasing trends in annual rainfall are found at Bhola (−11.67 mm/year) and Rajshahi (−5.951 mm/year) stations and decreasing trends in rainfall dominated the Pre-Kharif season over the area. But, 83.33 % of the stations show rising trends in annual mean temperature with significant positive trends (as observed by both MK test and SR test) at Rangpur, Bogra, Faridpur, Jessore and Bhola stations where the rate of changes vary from 0.013 °C/year at Faridpur to 0.08 °C/year at Bhola. Most of the trends in Rabi and Pre-Kharif seasons of mean temperatures are not statistically significant. However, all stations except Barisal show significant rising trends in temperature in Kharif season. To cope with this changing pattern of rainfall and temperature, effective adaptation strategies should be taken to keep up the agricultural production that is related to livelihood of the most people and to ensure the country’s food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Md. Kamruzzaman & A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman & Md. Shakil Ahmed & Md. Enamul Kabir & Quamrul Hasan Mazumder & M. Sayedur Rahman & Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan, 2018. "Spatio-temporal analysis of climatic variables in the western part of Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 89-108, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:20:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10668-016-9872-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-016-9872-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-016-9872-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-016-9872-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adina-Eliza Croitoru & Iulian-Horia Holobaca & Catalin Lazar & Florin Moldovan & Alexandru Imbroane, 2012. "Air temperature trend and the impact on winter wheat phenology in Romania," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 393-410, March.
    2. P. Gyau-Boakye & J.W. Tumbulto, 2000. "The Volta Lake and Declining Rainfall and Streamflows in the Volta River Basin," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-11, March.
    3. Mojtaba Shadmani & Safar Marofi & Majid Roknian, 2012. "Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 211-224, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang Fang & Xiaofan Ding & Han Gao, 2022. "Local-Scale Groundwater Sustainability Assessment Based on the Response to Groundwater Mining (MGSI): A Case Study of Da’an City, Jilin Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Jayanta Das & A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman & Tapash Mandal & Piu Saha, 2021. "Exploring driving forces of large-scale unsustainable groundwater development for irrigation in lower Ganga River basin in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7289-7309, May.
    3. Mojid, Mohammad A. & Mainuddin, Mohammed & Murad, Khandakar Faisal Ibn & Kirby, John Mac, 2021. "Water usage trends under intensive groundwater-irrigated agricultural development in a changing climate – Evidence from Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weibin Zhang & Xiaochun Zha & Jiaxing Li & Wei Liang & Yugai Ma & Dongmei Fan & Sha Li, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Change of Blue Water and Green Water Resources in the Headwater of Yellow River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4715-4732, October.
    2. BΘnΘ, C. & Russell, A.J.M., 2007. "Diagnostic study of the Volta Basin fisheries: Part 2 Livelihoods and poverty analysis, current trends and projections," Monographs, The WorldFish Center, number 38823, April.
    3. Adina-Eliza Croitoru & Titus Cristian Man & Sorin Daniel Vâtcă & Bela Kobulniczky & Vlad Stoian, 2020. "Refining the Spatial Scale for Maize Crop Agro-Climatological Suitability Conditions in a Region with Complex Topography towards a Smart and Sustainable Agriculture. Case Study: Central Romania (Cluj ," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Muhammad Imran Khan & Dong Liu & Qiang Fu & Shuhua Dong & Umar Waqas Liaqat & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Yuxiang Hu & Qaisar Saddique, 2016. "Recent Climate Trends and Drought Behavioral Assessment Based on Precipitation and Temperature Data Series in the Songhua River Basin of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4839-4859, October.
    5. Namara, Regassa E & Awuni, J. A. & Barry, Boubacar & Giordano, Mark & Hope, Lesley & Owusu, Eric S. & Forkuor, Gerald, 2011. "Smallholder shallow groundwater irrigation development in the upper east region of Ghana," IWMI Research Reports H044687, International Water Management Institute.
    6. Zhang, Lei & Traore, Seydou & Cui, Yuanlai & Luo, Yufeng & Zhu, Ge & Liu, Bo & Fipps, Guy & Karthikeyan, R. & Singh, Vijay, 2019. "Assessment of spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and controlling climate factors over decades in China using geospatial techniques," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 499-511.
    7. Zenebe Adimassu & Marloes Mul & Afua Owusu, 2024. "Intra-seasonal rainfall variability and crop yield in the Upper East Region of Ghana," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 29249-29268, November.
    8. Muhammad Waseem & Ijaz Ahmad & Ahmad Mujtaba & Muhammad Tayyab & Chen Si & Haishen Lü & Xiaohua Dong, 2020. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Precipitation in Southwest Arid-Agriculture Zones of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    9. Mohammad Valipour, 2014. "Use of average data of 181 synoptic stations for estimation of reference crop evapotranspiration by temperature-based methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4237-4255, September.
    10. Arash Malekian & Majid Kazemzadeh, 2016. "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Regional Trends and Shift Changes of Autocorrelated Temperature Series in Urmia Lake Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 785-803, January.
    11. Khanmohammadi, Neda & Rezaie, Hossein & Montaseri, Majid & Behmanesh, Javad, 2017. "The effect of reference-condition-based temperature modification on the trend of reference evapotranspiration in arid and semi-arid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 204-213.
    12. Pratik Pathak & Ajay Kalra & Sajjad Ahmad & Miguel Bernardez, 2016. "Wavelet-Aided Analysis to Estimate Seasonal Variability and Dominant Periodicities in Temperature, Precipitation, and Streamflow in the Midwestern United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4649-4665, October.
    13. Kai Lun Chong & Sai Hin Lai & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2019. "Wavelet Transform Based Method for River Stream Flow Time Series Frequency Analysis and Assessment in Tropical Environment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 2015-2032, April.
    14. P. Gyau-Boakye, 2001. "Environmental Impacts of the Akosombo Dam and Effects of Climate Change on the Lake Levels," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 17-29, March.
    15. Jiang, Shouzheng & Liang, Chuan & Cui, Ningbo & Zhao, Lu & Du, Taisheng & Hu, Xiaotao & Feng, Yu & Guan, Jing & Feng, Yi, 2019. "Impacts of climatic variables on reference evapotranspiration during growing season in Southwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 365-378.
    16. Nam, Won-Ho & Hong, Eun-Mi & Choi, Jin-Yong, 2015. "Has climate change already affected the spatial distribution and temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration in South Korea?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 129-138.
    17. Arash Malekian & Majid Kazemzadeh, 2016. "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Regional Trends and Shift Changes of Autocorrelated Temperature Series in Urmia Lake Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 785-803, January.
    18. Shih-Lun Fang & Yi-Shan Lin & Sheng-Chih Chang & Yi-Lung Chang & Bing-Yun Tsai & Bo-Jein Kuo, 2024. "Using Artificial Intelligence Algorithms to Estimate and Short-Term Forecast the Daily Reference Evapotranspiration with Limited Meteorological Variables," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, March.
    19. Georgeta Bandoc & Adrian Piticar & Cristian Patriche & Bogdan Roșca & Elena Dragomir, 2022. "Climate Warming-Induced Changes in Plant Phenology in the Most Important Agricultural Region of Romania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, February.
    20. Marius-Victor Birsan & Alexandru Dumitrescu & Dana Micu & Sorin Cheval, 2014. "Changes in annual temperature extremes in the Carpathians since AD 1961," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1899-1910, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:20:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10668-016-9872-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.