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A modeling analysis of the sustainability of ecotourism in Belize

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  • David Blersch
  • Patrick Kangas

Abstract

Over the past two decades, ecotourism has emerged as an important conservation strategy, especially in the Tropics where a diversity of species and habitats are threatened by traditional forms of development. However, questions remain about the sustainability of ecotourism in terms of distributions of income to local people and degradation of ecosystems visited by the ecotourists. In this study, a computer simulation model was used to study the possible long-term patterns of ecotourism at the country scale for Belize, Central America. The model includes state variables for natural ecosystems and tourism infrastructure with a submodel for global oil supply. It was simulated over a 100-year period as an EXCEL spreadsheet with a time step of 1 year. In all of the simulations, a decline over time in income from ecotourists was found due to increases in the price of oil and due to environmental impacts by tourism. Conservation efforts can slow the declines, but ultimately, the system is shown to be unsustainable. The results are discussed in the context of long-term conservation potential in Belize. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • David Blersch & Patrick Kangas, 2013. "A modeling analysis of the sustainability of ecotourism in Belize," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 67-80, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:15:y:2013:i:1:p:67-80
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-012-9374-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gossling, Stefan, 1999. "Ecotourism: a means to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem functions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-320, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim Bazazo & Mohammed Abdullah Nasseef & Abderrahman Al-Zawaideh & Ali Al-Zawaideh & Mahmoud Al-Dhomaidat, 2017. "The Impact of the Attitudes towards Ecotourism Benefits on Destination Loyalty," Journal of Management and Strategy, Journal of Management and Strategy, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(3), pages 67-79, June.
    2. Kanokporn Swangjang & Phitwalan Kornpiphat, 2021. "Does ecotourism in a Mangrove area at Klong Kone, Thailand, conform to sustainable tourism? A case study using SWOT and DPSIR," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(11), pages 15960-15985, November.
    3. Manijeh Talebi & Baris Majnounian & Majid Makhdoum & Ehsan Abdi & Mahmoud Omid, 2021. "Predicting areas with ecotourism capability using artificial neural networks and linear discriminant analysis (case study: Arasbaran Protected Area, Iran)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 8272-8287, June.
    4. Anup K. C. & Resham Thapa Parajuli, 2014. "Tourism and its impact on livelihood in Manaslu conservation area, Nepal," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(5), pages 1053-1063, October.
    5. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne, 2022. "Tourism growth and environmental sustainability: trade-off or convergence?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8115-8144, June.

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