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Measuring the strength of the theories of government size

Author

Listed:
  • Andros Kourtellos

    (University of Cyprus)

  • Alex Lenkoski

    (Norwegian Computing Center)

  • Kyriakos Petrou

    (University of Cyprus)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of model uncertainty in explaining the different findings in the literature regarding the determinants of government expenditure and its components. In particular, we systematically assess the evidentiary support for nine different theories using a novel model averaging method that allows for endogeneity. Our results suggest that the government size and its components are explained by multiple mechanisms that work simultaneously but differ in their impact and importance. Hence, policy makers should avoid relying on any particular model to make policy decisions. More precisely, for general government total expenditure we find decisive evidence for the demography theory and a strong evidence for the globalization and political institution theory. In the case of central government total expenditure, we find that income inequality and macroeconomic policy play a decisive role in addition to demography.

Suggested Citation

  • Andros Kourtellos & Alex Lenkoski & Kyriakos Petrou, 2020. "Measuring the strength of the theories of government size," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2185-2222, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01718-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01718-0
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government size; Theory uncertainty; Model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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