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Market uncertainty, risk aversion, and macroeconomic expectations

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  • John Nkwoma Inekwe

    (Macquarie University)

Abstract

In a dynamic model, this paper characterises the interaction between macroeconomic expectation, risk aversion, and market uncertainty. From survey dispersion forecast, we capture macroeconomic expectation using monetary policy uncertainty, business outlook, and consumer confidence, while risk aversion and market uncertainty measures are derived from realised and implied volatilities. We find that shocks to these dispersion measures significantly affect market uncertainty, risk aversion, and macroeconomic variables. Shocks to monetary policy certainty, business outlook, and consumer confidence significantly lower risk aversion and market uncertainty. Shocks to monetary policy stance have a persistent, but minute effect on risk aversion, uncertainty, and macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2020. "Market uncertainty, risk aversion, and macroeconomic expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1977-1995, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01732-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01732-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Olkiewicz, 2022. "The Impact of Economic Indicators on the Evolution of Business Confidence during the COVID-19 Pandemic Period," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Survey; Business confidence; Uncertainty; Risk aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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