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Monetary policy and transmission mechanism in Brazil: an empirical model

Author

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  • Wilson Corrêa
  • Sidney Caetano

Abstract

We propose an econometric model for the transmission mechanism in Brazil after the inflation target regime (IT) implementation. We follow the statistical approach based on the LSE methodology by means of the Spanos (J Econom 44:87–105, 1990 ) categorization. Our proposed model includes the ratios of the debt and primary surplus to the GDP representing the government fiscal effort. We identify two long run relationships that produce new information on how to evaluate the real interest rate and the nominal interest rate links, respectively, with the output gap and the nominal inflation derived from the IS and the interest rule theoretical models. Such specification explores the role played by fiscal variables in monetary transmission; considering the government fiscal effort, a relevant issue for Brazil. We were also able to identify a third long run relationship that might help to uncover how output gap is related not only with nominal variables but also with the debt to the GDP ratio. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Wilson Corrêa & Sidney Caetano, 2013. "Monetary policy and transmission mechanism in Brazil: an empirical model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:1:p:115-135
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0610-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; VAR; Cointegration; Brazil; C32; C50; E52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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