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VAR Modelling and Haavelmo's Probability Approach to Macroeconomic Modelling

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  • Juselius, Katarina

Abstract

Some recent developments in the macroeconometric analysis of time series are discussed in the light of Haavelmo (1944). Experimental design in econometrics is discussed and related to the case of passive observation. The general ideas are illustrated with an analysis of the long-run and short-run structure in Danish monetary data.

Suggested Citation

  • Juselius, Katarina, 1993. "VAR Modelling and Haavelmo's Probability Approach to Macroeconomic Modelling," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 595-622.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:18:y:1993:i:4:p:595-622
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    2. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    3. de Brouwer, Gordon & Ericsson, Neil R, 1998. "Modeling Inflation in Australia," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 433-449, October.
    4. Ericsson, Neil R., 1995. "Conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 159-171, September.
    5. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Reffett, Kevin L., 1995. "I(2) representations of US money demand," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 415-423, October.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Salvatore D'Acunto & Sergio Destefanis & Marco Musella, 2004. "Exports, Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 167-189.
    8. Yu, Qiao, 1998. "Capital investment, international trade and economic growth in China: Evidence in the 1980-1990s," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 73-84.
    9. Juselius, Katarina, 2015. "Haavelmo’S Probability Approach And The Cointegrated Var," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 213-232, April.
    10. John S. Irons & N. Ericsson, "undated". "An early version of The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory without Measurement," Home Pages _004, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Economics.
    11. David F. Hendry, 2024. "A Brief History of General‐to‐specific Modelling," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(1), pages 1-20, February.
    12. Bruno Chiarini, 1998. "Cyclicality of real wages and adjustment costs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(9), pages 1239-1250.
    13. Hendry, David F., 1997. "On congruent econometric relations : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 163-190, December.
    14. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2001. "Identification and dimension of the NAIRU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 585-611, December.
    15. Bruggeman, Annick & Donnay, Marie, 2003. "A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    16. Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
    17. Oral Williams & David Bessler, 1997. "Cointegration: implications for the market efficiencies of the high fructose corn syrup and refined sugar markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 225-232.
    18. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2000. "Unemployment, Wage Pressure and Sectoral Shifts: Permanent and Temporary Consequences of Intersectoral Shocks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 777-799, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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