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COVID-19 contagion and digital finance

Author

Listed:
  • Arianna Agosto

    (University of Pavia)

  • Paolo Giudici

    (University of Pavia)

Abstract

Digital finance is going to be heavily affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, so that its impact on finance can possibly be anticipated, and digitally monitored. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and considers both short-term and long-term dependence in the infections counts. Model results are presented for the observed time series of China, the first affected country, but can be easily reproduced for all countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Arianna Agosto & Paolo Giudici, 2020. "COVID-19 contagion and digital finance," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 159-167, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:digfin:v:2:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s42521-020-00021-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s42521-020-00021-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Agosto, Arianna & Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Kristensen, Dennis & Rahbek, Anders, 2016. "Modeling corporate defaults: Poisson autoregressions with exogenous covariates (PARX)," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 640-663.
    2. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2011. "Log-linear Poisson autoregression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 563-578, March.
    3. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    4. René Ferland & Alain Latour & Driss Oraichi, 2006. "Integer‐Valued GARCH Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(6), pages 923-942, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Asror Nigmonov & Syed Shams, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic risk and probability of loan default: evidence from marketplace lending market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion monitoring; Poisson autoregressive models; Financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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