IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/demogr/v56y2019i4d10.1007_s13524-019-00786-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Randomness in the Bedroom: There Is No Evidence for Fertility Control in Pre-Industrial England

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Clark

    (University of California, Davis
    London School of Economics
    Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

  • Neil Cummins

    (London School of Economics
    Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

Abstract

Overturning a generation of research, Cinnirella et al. Demography, 54, 413–436 (2017) found strong parity-dependent fertility control in pre-Industrial England 1540–1850. We show that their result is an unfortunate artifact of their statistical method, relying on mother fixed effects, which contradicts basic biological possibilities for fecundity. These impossible parity effects also appear with simulated fertility data that by design have no parity control. We conclude that estimating parity control using mother fixed effects is in no way feasible. We also show, using the Cambridge Group data that Cinnirella et al. used, that there is no sign of parity-dependent fertility control in English marriages before 1850.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2019. "Randomness in the Bedroom: There Is No Evidence for Fertility Control in Pre-Industrial England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1541-1555, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:56:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s13524-019-00786-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-019-00786-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13524-019-00786-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13524-019-00786-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Dribe & Francesco Scalone, 2010. "Detecting Deliberate Fertility Control in Pre-transitional Populations: Evidence from six German villages, 1766–1863 [Mise en évidence d’un contrôle volontaire des naissances dans des populations p," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 411-434, November.
    2. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2015. "Malthus to modernity: wealth, status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 3-29, January.
    3. Francesco Cinnirella & Marc Klemp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. "Malthus in the Bedroom: Birth Spacing as Birth Control in Pre-Transition England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 413-436, April.
    4. Tommy Bengtsson & Martin Dribe, 2006. "Deliberate control in a natural fertility population: Southern Sweden, 1766–1864," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(4), pages 727-746, November.
    5. Neil Cummins, 2013. "Marital fertility and wealth during the fertility transition: rural F rance, 1750–1850," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(2), pages 449-476, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Cinnirella & Marc Klemp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Further Evidence of Within-Marriage Fertility Control in Pre-Transitional England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1557-1572, August.
    2. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix, 2023. "The Emergence of the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff - insights from early modern academics," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins & Matthew Curtis, 2020. "Twins Support the Absence of Parity-Dependent Fertility Control in Pretransition Populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1571-1595, August.
    4. Hannaliis Jaadla & Ellen Potter & Sebastian Keibek & Romola Davenport, 2020. "Infant and child mortality by socio‐economic status in early nineteenth‐century England," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(4), pages 991-1022, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cummins, Neil, 2020. "The micro-evidence for the Malthusian system. France, 1670–1840," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins & Matthew Curtis, 2020. "Twins Support the Absence of Parity-Dependent Fertility Control in Pretransition Populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1571-1595, August.
    3. Cummins, Neil & Clark, Gregory & Curtis, Matthew, 2019. "Twins Support Absence of Parity-Dependent Fertility Control in Pre-Transition Western European Populations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. ""Decessit sine prole" Childlessness, Celibacy, and Survival of the Richest in Pre-Industrial England," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2017001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Francesco Cinnirella & Marc Klemp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Further Evidence of Within-Marriage Fertility Control in Pre-Transitional England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1557-1572, August.
    6. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Childlessness, celibacy and net fertility in pre-industrial England: the middle-class evolutionary advantage," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 223-256, September.
    7. Tommy Bengtsson & Martin Dribe, 2014. "The historical fertility transition at the micro level," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(17), pages 493-534.
    8. Jacob Weisdorf, 2024. "Church Book Registry: A Cliometric View," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 3, pages 589-610, Springer.
    9. Francesco Cinnirella & Marc Klemp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. "Malthus in the Bedroom: Birth Spacing as Birth Control in Pre-Transition England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 413-436, April.
    10. Marco Breschi & Alessio Fornasin & Matteo Manfredini & Lucia Pozzi & Rosella Rettaroli & Francesco Scalone, 2014. "Social and Economic Determinants of Reproductive Behavior Before the Fertility Decline. The Case of Six Italian Communities During the Nineteenth Century," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 291-315, August.
    11. Martin Dribe & Francesco Scalone, 2014. "Social class and net fertility before, during, and after the demographic transition: A micro-level analysis of Sweden 1880-1970," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(15), pages 429-464.
    12. Jeanne Cilliers & Martine Mariotti, 2019. "Stop! Go! What can we learn about family planning from birth timing in settler South Africa, 1800-1910?," CEH Discussion Papers 05, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    13. Luciana Quaranta, 2011. "Agency of Change: Fertility and Seasonal Migration in a Nineteenth Century Alpine Community [Les agents du changement: fécondité et migration saisonnière dans une communauté des Alpes au 19e siècle," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 457-485, November.
    14. Francesco Cinnirella & Marc P. B. Klemp & Jacob L. Weisdorf, 2012. "Malthus in the Bedroom: Birth Spacing as a Preventive Check Mechanism in Pre-Modern England," CESifo Working Paper Series 3936, CESifo.
    15. Jeanne Cilliers & Martine Mariotti, 2019. "The shaping of a settler fertility transition: eighteenth- and nineteenth-century South African demographic history reconsidered," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 23(4), pages 421-445.
    16. Fabian Drixler, 2015. "Conjuring the Ghosts of Missing Children: A Monte Carlo Simulation of Reproductive Restraint in Tokugawa Japan," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(2), pages 667-703, April.
    17. Martin Kolk, 2011. "Deliberate Birth Spacing in Nineteenth Century Northern Sweden [L’espacement volontaire des naissances au 19e siècle dans le Nord de la Suède]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 337-359, August.
    18. David Sven Reher & Glenn Sandström & Alberto Sanz-Gimeno & Frans W. A. van Poppel, 2017. "Agency in Fertility Decisions in Western Europe During the Demographic Transition: A Comparative Perspective," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 3-22, February.
    19. Le Bris, David & Tallec, Ronan, 2021. "The European Marriage Pattern and its Positive Consequences Montesquieu-Volvestre, 1660-1789," MPRA Paper 105324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Youssouf Merouani & Faustine Perrin, 2022. "Gender and the long-run development process. A survey of the literature [Rethinking age heaping: A cautionary tale from nineteenth-century Italy]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(4), pages 612-641.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:56:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s13524-019-00786-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.