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Decomposing the Effect of Crime on Population Changes

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  • Andrew Foote

Abstract

This article estimates the effect of crime on migration rates for counties in U.S. metropolitan areas and makes three contributions to the literature. First, I use administrative data on migration flows between counties, which gives me more precise estimates of population changes than data used in previous studies. Second, I am able to decompose net population changes into gross migration flows in order to identify how individuals respond to crime rate changes. Finally, I include county-level trends so that my identification comes from shocks away from the trend. I find effects that are one-fiftieth the size of the most prominent estimate in the literature; and although the long-run effects are somewhat larger, they are still only approximately one-twentieth as large. I also find that responses to crime rates differ by subgroups, and that increases in crime cause white households to leave the county, with effects almost 10 times as large as for black households. Copyright Population Association of America 2015

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  • Andrew Foote, 2015. "Decomposing the Effect of Crime on Population Changes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(2), pages 705-728, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:52:y:2015:i:2:p:705-728
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0375-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Leah Platt Boustan & Robert A. Margo & Matthew M. Miller & James M. Reeves & Justin P. Steil, 2019. "Does Condominium Development Lead to Gentrification?," NBER Working Papers 26170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. DeAngelo, Gregory & Gittings, R Kaj & Alves Pena, Anita, 2018. "Interracial face-to-face crimes and the socioeconomics of neighborhoods: Evidence from policing records," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Tatyana Guzman & Benjamin Y. Clark, 2022. "Crime and credit: The empirical study of how crime affects credit ratings of large U.S. cities," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1234-1247, September.
    4. Chairassamee, Nattanicha, 2018. "Crimes and Moving Decision in the United States: A Conditional Logit Approach," Asian Journal of Applied Economics/ Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 25(1), pages 1-14, June.
    5. Boustan, Leah & Margo, Robert A. & Miller, Matthew M. & Reeves, James & Steil, Justin, 2023. "JUE Insight: Condominium development does not lead to gentrification," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Stephan D. Whitaker, 2023. "Understanding Migration Trends to Prepare for the Post-Pandemic Future," Cleveland Fed Regional Policy Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue 20230801, pages 1-32, August.

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    Keywords

    Migration; Crime; Decomposition;
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