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Assessing Validity and Application Scope of the Intrinsic Estimator Approach to the Age-Period-Cohort Problem

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  • Liying Luo

Abstract

In many different fields, social scientists desire to understand temporal variation associated with age, time period, and cohort membership. Among methods proposed to address the identification problem in age-period-cohort analysis, the intrinsic estimator (IE) is reputed to impose few assumptions and to yield good estimates of the independent effects of age, period, and cohort groups. This article assesses the validity and application scope of IE theoretically and illustrates its properties with simulations. It shows that IE implicitly assumes a constraint on the linear age, period, and cohort effects. This constraint not only depends on the number of age, period, and cohort categories but also has nontrivial implications for estimation. Because this assumption is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to verify in empirical research, IE cannot and should not be used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects. Copyright Population Association of America 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Liying Luo, 2013. "Assessing Validity and Application Scope of the Intrinsic Estimator Approach to the Age-Period-Cohort Problem," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 1945-1967, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:50:y:2013:i:6:p:1945-1967
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-013-0243-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fu, Wenjiang J. & Hall, Peter, 2006. "Asymptotic properties of estimators in age-period-cohort analysis," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(17), pages 1925-1929, November.
    2. Samuel Preston & Haidong Wang, 2006. "Sex mortality differences in The United States: The role of cohort smoking patterns," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(4), pages 631-646, November.
    3. Yang Yang, 2008. "Trends in U.S. adult chronic disease mortality, 1960–1999: age, period, and cohort variations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 387-416, May.
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