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Lag weighted lasso for time series model

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  • Heewon Park
  • Fumitake Sakaori

Abstract

The adaptive lasso can consistently identify the true model in regression model. However, the adaptive lasso cannot account for lag effects, which are essential for a time series model. Consequently, the adaptive lasso can not reflect certain properties of a time series model. To improve the forecast accuracy of a time series model, we propose a lag weighted lasso. The lag weighted lasso imposes different penalties on each coefficient based on weights that reflect not only the coefficients size but also the lag effects. Simulation studies and a real example show that the proposed method is superior to both the lasso and the adaptive lasso in forecast accuracy. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Heewon Park & Fumitake Sakaori, 2013. "Lag weighted lasso for time series model," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 493-504, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:28:y:2013:i:2:p:493-504
    DOI: 10.1007/s00180-012-0313-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Hansheng & Leng, Chenlei, 2008. "A note on adaptive group lasso," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(12), pages 5277-5286, August.
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    3. Ming Yuan & Yi Lin, 2007. "On the non‐negative garrotte estimator," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 143-161, April.
    4. Zou, Hui, 2006. "The Adaptive Lasso and Its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1418-1429, December.
    5. Romy R. Ravines & Alexandra M. Schmidt & Helio S. Migon, 2006. "Revisiting distributed lag models through a Bayesian perspective," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 193-210, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heewon Park & Sadanori Konishi, 2017. "Principal component selection via adaptive regularization method and generalized information criterion," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 147-160, March.
    2. Ding, Yi & Kambouroudis, Dimos & McMillan, David G., 2021. "Forecasting realised volatility: Does the LASSO approach outperform HAR?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Ricardo P. Masini & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Eduardo F. Mendes, 2023. "Machine learning advances for time series forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 76-111, February.

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