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Modelling the future: climate change research in Russia during the late Cold War and beyond, 1970s–2000

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  • Katja Doose

    (Universite de Fribourg)

Abstract

Climate models are what governments, experts and societies base their decisions on future climate action on. To show how different models were used to explain climatic changes and to project future climates before the emergence of a global consensus on the validity of general circulation models, this article focuses on the attempt of Soviet climatologists and their government to push for their climate model to be acknowledged by the international climate science community. It argues that Soviet climate sciences as well as their interpretations of the climate of the twenty-first century were products of the Cold War, and that the systematic lack of access to high-speed computers forced Soviet climatologists to use simpler climate reconstructions as analogues, with far-reaching consequences for climate sciences in post-Soviet Russia. By juxtaposing the history of Soviet climate modelling with the early history of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, which rejected the Soviet model, the article sheds light on the relationship of science and politics. The findings are based on archival and print material as well as on interviews.

Suggested Citation

  • Katja Doose, 2022. "Modelling the future: climate change research in Russia during the late Cold War and beyond, 1970s–2000," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:171:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03315-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03315-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Marburger, 2011. "Science, technology and innovation in a 21st century context," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 44(3), pages 209-213, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anastassia Obydenkova, 2024. "Arctic environmental governance: challenges of sustainable development," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Katja Doose & Marianna Poberezhskaya & Benjamin Beuerle, 2023. "Introduction from the editors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-6, May.
    3. Nadezhda Filimonova & Anastassia Obydenkova & Vinicius G. Rodrigues Vieira, 2023. "Geopolitical and economic interests in environmental governance: explaining observer state status in the Arctic Council," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-25, May.
    4. Benjamin Beuerle, 2023. "From continuity to change: Soviet and Russian government attitudes on climate change (1989–2009)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-19, April.

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