IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v168y2021i1d10.1007_s10584-021-03216-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal

Author

Listed:
  • Dipesh Chapagain

    (University of Bonn)

  • Sanita Dhaubanjar

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI))

  • Luna Bharati

    (University of Bonn
    International Water Management Institute (IWMI))

Abstract

Existing climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and their sectoral implications in the Karnali Basin in western Nepal. First, future projections of 26 climate indices relevant to six climate-sensitive sectors in Karnali are made for the near (2021–2045), mid (2046–2070), and far (2071–2095) future for low- and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) using bias-corrected ensembles of 19 regional climate models from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Second, a qualitative analysis based on expert interviews and a literature review on the impact of the projected climate extremes on the climate-sensitive sectors is undertaken. Both the temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to deviate significantly from the historical reference already from the near future with increased occurrences of extreme events. Winter in the highlands is expected to become warmer and dryer. The hot and wet tropical summer in the lowlands will become hotter with longer warm spells and fewer cold days. Low-intensity precipitation events will decline, but the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The compounding effects of the increase in extreme temperature and precipitation events will have largely negative implications for the six climate-sensitive sectors considered here.

Suggested Citation

  • Dipesh Chapagain & Sanita Dhaubanjar & Luna Bharati, 2021. "Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-23, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:168:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03216-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03216-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03216-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-021-03216-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khatiwada, K. R. & Pandey, Vishnu Prasad, 2019. "Characterization of hydro-meteorological drought in Nepal Himalaya: a case of Karnali River Basin," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-26:100239.
    2. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    3. Robert Zomer & Antonio Trabucco & Marc Metzger & Mingcheng Wang & Krishna Oli & Jianchu Xu, 2014. "Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 445-460, August.
    4. Chalise, Sudarshan & Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S. & Sarker, Tapan, 2017. "A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-50.
    5. Pandey, Vishnu Prasad & Dhaubanjar, Sanita & Bharati, Luna & Thapa, Bhesh Raj, 2020. "Spatio-temporal distribution of water availability in Karnali-Mohana Basin, western Nepal: climate change impact assessment (Part-B)," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-29:100691.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abdulnoor A. J. Ghanim & Muhammad Naveed Anjum & Ghulam Rasool & Saifullah & Muhammad Irfan & Mana Alyami & Saifur Rahman & Usama Muhammad Niazi, 2023. "Analyzing Extreme Temperature Patterns in Subtropical Highlands Climates: Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Lynn Reuter & Alexander Graf & Klaus Goergen & Niels Döscher & Michael Leuchner, 2023. "Modelling climate analogue regions for a central European city," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Berkin Gumus & Sertac Oruc & Ismail Yucel & Mustafa Tugrul Yilmaz, 2023. "Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Climate Indices in Türkiye Driven by High-Resolution Downscaled CMIP6 Climate Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-38, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abeysekara, Walimuni Chamindri Sewanka Mendis & Siriwardana, Mahinda & Meng, Samuel, 2023. "Economic consequences of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector of South Asia: A case study of Sri Lanka," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 435-450.
    2. Jale Amanuel Dufera & Tewodros Addisu Yate & Tadesse Tujuba Kenea, 2023. "Spatiotemporal analysis of drought in Oromia regional state of Ethiopia over the period 1989 to 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1569-1609, June.
    3. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Cathy R. Farnworth & Ritika Khurana & Srabashi Ray & Tek B. Sapkota & Dil Bahadur Rahut, 2020. "Does women’s participation in agricultural technology adoption decisions affect the adoption of climate‐smart agriculture? Insights from Indo‐Gangetic Plains of India," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 973-990, August.
    4. Temitope Oluwaseun Ojo & Abiodun A. Ogundeji & Chijioke U. Emenike, 2022. "Does Adoption of Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Improve Food Security? A Case of Rice Farmers in Ogun State, Nigeria," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    6. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek Bahadur Sapkota & Dil Bahadur Rahut & Hom Nath Gartaula & Clare Stirling, 2022. "Gender and climate change adaptation: A case of Ethiopian farmers," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(3), pages 263-288, August.
    7. Barooah, Prapti & Alvi, Muzna & Ringler, Claudia & Pathak, Vishal, 2023. "Gender, agriculture policies, and climate-smart agriculture in India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    8. Sahrish Saeed & Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum & Sofia Anwar & Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen, 2023. "Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Feedback Hypothesis: A Comparison of Lower-Middle, Upper-Middle, and High-Income Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-25, February.
    9. Dilshad Ahmad & Malika Kanwal & Muhammad Afzal, 2023. "Climate change effects on riverbank erosion Bait community flood-prone area of Punjab, Pakistan: an application of livelihood vulnerability index," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 9387-9415, September.
    10. Md Nadiruzzaman & Mahjabeen Rahman & Uma Pal & Simon Croxton & Md Bazlur Rashid & Aditya Bahadur & Saleemul Huq, 2021. "Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Production in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Guillermo Alexis Vergel-Rangel & Pablo Emilio Escamilla-García & Raúl Horacio Camarillo-López & Jair Azael Esquivel-Guzmán & Francisco Pérez-Soto, 2021. "The environmental impact of nopal (Opuntia ficus-indica) production in Mexico City, Mexico through a life cycle assessment (LCA)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(12), pages 18068-18095, December.
    12. Mitra, Archisman & Bouwer, Roy & Balasubramanya, Soumya & Taron, Avinandan, 2022. "Willingness to pay for bundled agricultural insurance products – results from a discrete choice experiment in Bihar, India," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322159, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Sabina Regmi & Kushal Naharki, 2020. "A Swot Analysis Of Agribusiness Entrepreneurship In Nepal," Food & Agribusiness Management (FABM), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 83-88, June.
    14. Somasundaram Jayaraman & Yash P. Dang & Anandkumar Naorem & Kathryn L. Page & Ram C. Dalal, 2021. "Conservation Agriculture as a System to Enhance Ecosystem Services," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, July.
    15. Das, Usha & Ansari, M.A. & Ghosh, Souvik, 2022. "Effectiveness and upscaling potential of climate smart agriculture interventions: Farmers' participatory prioritization and livelihood indicators as its determinants," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    16. Ihsan F. Hasan & Rozi Abdullah, 2023. "Multivariate index for monitoring drought (case study, Northeastern of Iraq)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3817-3837, April.
    17. Kumar Bahadur Darjee & Ramesh Kumar Sunam & Michael Köhl & Prem Raj Neupane, 2021. "Do National Policies Translate into Local Actions? Analyzing Coherence between Climate Change Adaptation Policies and Implications for Local Adaptation in Nepal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-32, November.
    18. Saudamini Das, "undated". "Evaluating the Role of Media in Averting Heat Stroke Mortality: A Daily Panel Data Analysis," Working papers 102, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    19. Sudarshan Chalise & Athula Naranpanawa, 2023. "Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation in agriculture on poverty: the case of Nepal," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 1540-1559, October.
    20. Prakash Pachiyappan & Pramod Kumar & Krishna Viswanatha Reddy & Kotamraju N. Ravi Kumar & Srinivasa Konduru & Venkatesh Paramesh & Gandhamanagenahalli A. Rajanna & Shashidhar K. Shankarappa & Duraisam, 2022. "Protected Cultivation of Horticultural Crops as a Livelihood Opportunity in Western India: An Economic Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:168:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03216-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.