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Climatic impacts on water resources in a tropical catchment in Uganda and adaptation measures proposed by resident stakeholders

Author

Listed:
  • Bano Mehdi

    (Institute for Hydrology and Water Management)

  • Julie Dekens

    (Secretariat for the NAP Global Network)

  • Mathew Herrnegger

    (Institute for Hydrology and Water Management)

Abstract

The Ruhezamyenda catchment in Uganda includes a unique lake, Lake Bunyonyi, and is threatened by increasing social and environmental pressures. The COSERO hydrological model was used to assess the impact of climate change on future surface runoff and evapotranspiration in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment (381 km2). The model was forced with an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) simulations for the mid-term future (2041–2070) and for the far future (2071–2100), each with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the Ruhezamyenda catchment, compared to 1971–2000, the median of all GCMs (for both RCPs) showed the mean monthly air temperature to increase by approximately 1.5 to 3.0 °C in the mid-term future and by roughly 2.0 to 4.5 °C in the far future. The mean annual precipitation is generally projected to increase, with future changes between − 25 and + 75% (RCP8.5). AET in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment was simulated to increase for the future by approximately + 8 mm/month in the median of all GCMs for RCP8.5 for the far future. The runoff for future periods showed much uncertainty, but with an overall increasing trend. A combination of no-regrets adaptation options in the five categories of: governance; communication and capacity development; water, soil, land management and livelihoods improvement; data management; and research, was identified and validated with stakeholders, who also identified additional adaptation actions based on the model results. This study contributes to improving scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change on water resources in Uganda with the purpose to support adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bano Mehdi & Julie Dekens & Mathew Herrnegger, 2021. "Climatic impacts on water resources in a tropical catchment in Uganda and adaptation measures proposed by resident stakeholders," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:164:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-02958-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02958-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Call, Maia & Gray, Clark & Jagger, Pamela, 2019. "Smallholder responses to climate anomalies in rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 132-144.
    2. Carlo Giupponi, 2014. "Decision Support for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Water Resources Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4795-4808, October.
    3. F. Jorge Bornemann & David P. Rowell & Barbara Evans & Dan J. Lapworth & Kamazima Lwiza & David M.J. Macdonald & John H. Marsham & Kindie Tesfaye & Matthew J. Ascott & Celia Way, 2019. "Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 365-384, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alem Oyarmoi & Stephen Birkinshaw & Caspar J. M. Hewett & Hayley J. Fowler, 2023. "The Effect of Papyrus Wetlands on Flow Regulation in a Tropical River Catchment," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Debajit Das & Tilottama Chakraborty & Mrinmoy Majumder & Tarun Kanti Bandyopadhyay, 2023. "Estimation of Runoff Under Changed Climatic Scenario of a Meso Scale River by Neural Network Based Gridded Model Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(8), pages 2891-2907, June.

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