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Brazil’s emission trajectories in a well-below 2 °C world: the role of disruptive technologies versus land-based mitigation in an already low-emission energy system

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  • Alexandre C. Köberle

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia
    Imperial College London)

  • Pedro R. R. Rochedo

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia)

  • André F. P. Lucena

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia)

  • Alexandre Szklo

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia)

  • Roberto Schaeffer

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia)

Abstract

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement (PA) submitted so far do not put the world on track to meet the targets of the Agreement and by 2020 countries should ratchet up ambition in the new round of NDCs. Brazil’s NDC to the PA received mixed reviews and has been rated as “medium” ambition. We use the Brazil Land Use and Energy System (BLUES) model to explore low-emission scenarios for Brazil for the 2010–2050 period that cost-effectively raise ambition to levels consistent with PA targets. Our results reinforce the fundamental role of the agriculture, forest, and land use (AFOLU) sectors and explore inter-sectoral linkages to power generation and transportation. We identify transportation as a prime candidate for decarbonization, leveraging Brazil’s already low-carbon electricity production and its high bioenergy production. Results indicate the most important mitigation measures are electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet for passenger transportation, biodiesel and biokerosene production via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis from lignocellulosic feedstock, and intensification of agricultural production. The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as netzero deforestation make significant contributions. We identify opportunities for Brazil, but synergies and trade-offs across sectors should be minded when designing climate policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre C. Köberle & Pedro R. R. Rochedo & André F. P. Lucena & Alexandre Szklo & Roberto Schaeffer, 2020. "Brazil’s emission trajectories in a well-below 2 °C world: the role of disruptive technologies versus land-based mitigation in an already low-emission energy system," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1823-1842, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02856-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02856-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandre C. Köberle & Vassilis Daioglou & Pedro Rochedo & André F. P. Lucena & Alexandre Szklo & Shinichiro Fujimori & Thierry Brunelle & Etsushi Kato & Alban Kitous & Detlef P. Vuuren & Roberto Scha, 2022. "Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-31, January.
    2. R. Schaeffer & A. Köberle & H. L. Soest & C. Bertram & G. Luderer & K. Riahi & V. Krey & D. P. Vuuren & E. Kriegler & S. Fujimori & W. Chen & C. He & Z. Vrontisi & S. Vishwanathan & A. Garg & R. Mathu, 2020. "Comparing transformation pathways across major economies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1787-1803, October.
    3. Nikas, A. & Koasidis, K. & Köberle, A.C. & Kourtesi, G. & Doukas, H., 2022. "A comparative study of biodiesel in Brazil and Argentina: An integrated systems of innovation perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Roberto Schaeffer & V. Bosetti & E. Kriegler & K. Riahi & D. Vuuren, 2020. "Climatic change: CD-Links special issue on national low-carbon development pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1779-1785, October.
    5. Brenda H. M. Silveira & Hirdan K. M. Costa & Edmilson M. Santos, 2023. "Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in Brazil: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Clara Camarasa & Érika Mata & Juan Pablo Jiménez Navarro & Janet Reyna & Paula Bezerra & Gerd Brantes Angelkorte & Wei Feng & Faidra Filippidou & Sebastian Forthuber & Chioke Harris & Nina Holck Sandb, 2022. "A global comparison of building decarbonization scenarios by 2050 towards 1.5–2 °C targets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Weng, Yuwei & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2021. "Evaluating the use of BECCS and afforestation under China’s carbon-neutral target for 2060," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).

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