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Unparalleled coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwaves in the New Zealand region: drivers, mechanisms and impacts

Author

Listed:
  • M. James Salinger

    (University of Florence)

  • Howard J. Diamond

    (NOAA/Air Resources Laboratory)

  • Erik Behrens

    (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research)

  • Denise Fernandez

    (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research)

  • B. Blair Fitzharris

    (University of Otago)

  • Nicholas Herold

    (Science Division, Climate and Atmospheric Science)

  • Paul Johnstone

    (New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited)

  • Huub Kerckhoffs

    (Massey University)

  • A. Brett Mullan

    (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research)

  • Amber K. Parker

    (Lincoln University)

  • James Renwick

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

  • Claire Scofield

    (New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited)

  • Allan Siano

    (Massey University)

  • Robert O. Smith

    (University of Otago)

  • Paul M. South

    (Cawthron Institute)

  • Phil J. Sutton

    (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
    University of Auckland)

  • Edmar Teixeira

    (New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited)

  • Mads S. Thomsen

    (University of Canterbury)

  • Michael C. T. Trought

    (Innovative Winegrowing)

Abstract

During austral summers (DJF) 1934/35, 2017/18 and 2018/19, the New Zealand (NZ) region (approximately 4 million km2) experienced the most intense coupled ocean-atmosphere heatwaves on record. Average air temperature anomalies over land were + 1.7 to 2.1 °C while sea surface temperatures (SST) were 1.2 to 1.9 °C above average. All three heatwaves exhibited maximum SST anomalies west of the South Island of NZ. Atmospheric circulation anomalies showed a pattern of blocking centred over the Tasman Sea extending south-east of NZ, accompanied by strongly positive Southern Annular Mode conditions, and reduced trough activity over NZ. Rapid melt of seasonal snow occurred in all three cases. For the two most recent events, combined ice loss in the Southern Alps was estimated at 8.9 km3 (22% of the 2017 volume). Sauvignon blanc and Pinot noir wine grapes had above average berry number and bunch mass in 2018 but were below average in 2019. Summerfruit harvest (cherries and apricots) was 14 and 2 days ahead of normal in 2017/18 and 2018/19 respectively. Spring wheat simulations suggested earlier flowering and lower grain yields compared to average, and below-average yield and tuber quality in potatoes crops occurred. Major species disruption occurred in marine ecosystems. Hindcasts indicate that the heatwaves were either atmospherically driven or arose from combinations of atmospheric surface warming and oceanic heat advection.

Suggested Citation

  • M. James Salinger & Howard J. Diamond & Erik Behrens & Denise Fernandez & B. Blair Fitzharris & Nicholas Herold & Paul Johnstone & Huub Kerckhoffs & A. Brett Mullan & Amber K. Parker & James Renwick &, 2020. "Unparalleled coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwaves in the New Zealand region: drivers, mechanisms and impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 485-506, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02730-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02730-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric C. J. Oliver & Markus G. Donat & Michael T. Burrows & Pippa J. Moore & Dan A. Smale & Lisa V. Alexander & Jessica A. Benthuysen & Ming Feng & Alex Sen Gupta & Alistair J. Hobday & Neil J. Holbroo, 2018. "Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
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