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Secular temperature variations and the spatial disparities of war in historical China

Author

Listed:
  • Shengda Zhang

    (Guangzhou University)

  • David Dian Zhang

    (Guangzhou University)

  • Jinbao Li

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Qing Pei

    (The Education University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Studies about climate change and the variation of the spatial pattern of war are extremely scarce in academia at present. Therefore, the temperature series and battle coordinates in imperial China from AD 5 to 1911 are integrated in this research, and their long-term quantitative relationship is examined by employing mathematical statistics such as one-way ANOVA, as well as the spatial analytical tool, standard deviational ellipse (SDE) in ArcGIS. Meanwhile, the temperature sequence is divided into three multicentennial warm–cold cycles, which are combined with different types of war (all war, agri-nomadic conflict, and rebellion) to reveal the spatial disparity of war under the influence of secular and periodic temperature change. Results show that (1) battle longitude and battle latitude are significantly different between warm and cold phases. (2) SDEs stretch toward the north/west/northwest in warm intervals but retreat south-/east-/southeastward in cold stages. (3) SDEs generally shift southeastward over time, and the variation of latitude is more evident than that of longitude, which corresponds to the overall cooling trend throughout the past 2000 years. Based on these research findings, we conclude that temperature fundamentally regulates the spatial difference of war in imperial China via controlling agricultural and pastoral productivity. This innovative study provides a robust climatological explanation of the historical conundrum why wars in ancient China distribute with specific directions, and it also lays a foundation for spatiotemporal investigations of climate change and human responses at long-term scales in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Shengda Zhang & David Dian Zhang & Jinbao Li & Qing Pei, 2020. "Secular temperature variations and the spatial disparities of war in historical China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 545-564, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:159:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02652-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02652-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harry Lee & David Zhang, 2013. "A tale of two population crises in recent Chinese history," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 285-308, January.
    2. Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & Edward C. Holland & John O'Loughlin, 2017. "Mountainous Terrain and Civil Wars: Geospatial Analysis of Conflict Dynamics in the Post-Soviet Caucasus," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(2), pages 520-535, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harry F. Lee & Xin Jia & Baoxiang Ji, 2022. "Population, Wars, and the Grand Canal in Chinese History," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.

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