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Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Helder Fraga

    (Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD)
    Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))

  • Joaquim G. Pinto

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))

  • João A. Santos

    (Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD))

Abstract

Air temperatures play a major role on temperate fruit development, and the projected future warming may thereby bring additional threats. The present study aims at analyzing the impacts of climate change on chilling and heat forcing on European vineyards and olive (V&O) orchards. Chilling portions (CP) and growing degree hours (GDH) were computed yearly for the recent past (1989–2005) and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios (2021–2080), using several regional-global climate models, also considering model uncertainties and biases. Additionally, minimum CP and GDH values found in 90% of all years were also computed. These metrics were then extracted to the current location of V&O in Europe, and CP-GDH delimitations were assessed. For recent past, high CP values are found in north-central European regions, while lower values tend to exist on opposite sides of Europe. Regarding forcing, southern European regions currently show the highest GDH values. Future projections point to an increased warming, particularly under RCP8.5 and for 2041 onwards. A lower/higher CP is projected for south-western/eastern Europe, while most of Europe is projected to have higher GDH. Northern-central European V&O orchards should still have future CP-GDH similar to present values, while most of southern European orchards are expected to have much lower CP and higher GDH, especially under RCP8.5. These changes may bring limitations to some of the world most important V&O producers, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal. The planning of suitable adaptation measures against these threats is critical for the future sustainability of the European V&O sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Helder Fraga & Joaquim G. Pinto & João A. Santos, 2019. "Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 179-193, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:152:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2337-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2337-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Manolis G. Grillakis & Evangelos G. Kapetanakis & Eleni Goumenaki, 2022. "Climate change implications for olive flowering in Crete, Greece: projections based on historical data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Rodríguez, Alfredo & Pérez-López, David & Centeno, Ana & Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, 2021. "Viability of temperate fruit tree varieties in Spain under climate change according to chilling accumulation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Teresa R. Freitas & João A. Santos & Ana P. Silva & André Fonseca & Helder Fraga, 2023. "Evaluation of historical and future thermal conditions for almond trees in north-eastern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Ohana-Levi, Noa & Mintz, Danielle Ferman & Hagag, Nave & Stern, Yossi & Munitz, Sarel & Friedman-Levi, Yael & Shacham, Nir & Grünzweig, José M. & Netzer, Yishai, 2022. "Grapevine responses to site-specific spatiotemporal factors in a Mediterranean climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    5. Mário S. Céu & Raquel M. Gaspar, 2023. "Financial Distress in European Vineyards and Olive Groves," Working Papers REM 2023/0266, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Haïfa Benmoussa & Eike Luedeling & Mohamed Ghrab & Mehdi Ben Mimoun, 2020. "Severe winter chill decline impacts Tunisian fruit and nut orchards," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1249-1267, October.
    7. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    8. Fraga, Helder & Pinto, Joaquim G. & Santos, João A., 2020. "Olive tree irrigation as a climate change adaptation measure in Alentejo, Portugal," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    9. Cabezas, J.M. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Soriano, M.A. & Santos, C. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Lorite, I.J., 2021. "Impact of climate change on economic components of Mediterranean olive orchards," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    10. Cabezas, J.M. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Soriano, M.A. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Santos, C. & Lorite, I.J., 2020. "Identifying adaptation strategies to climate change for Mediterranean olive orchards using impact response surfaces," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    11. Eddy Plasquy & José M. Garcia & Maria C. Florido & Rafael R. Sola-Guirado, 2021. "Estimation of the Cooling Rate of Six Olive Cultivars Using Thermal Imaging," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-13, February.
    12. Karam Alsafadi & Shuoben Bi & Bashar Bashir & Abdullah Alsalman & Amit Kumar Srivastava, 2023. "Future Scenarios of Bioclimatic Viticulture Indices in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights into Sustainable Vineyard Management in a Changing Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-22, July.
    13. Mairech, Hanene & López-Bernal, Álvaro & Moriondo, Marco & Dibari, Camilla & Regni, Luca & Proietti, Primo & Villalobos, Francisco J. & Testi, Luca, 2020. "Is new olive farming sustainable? A spatial comparison of productive and environmental performances between traditional and new olive orchards with the model OliveCan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

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