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Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jan-Ludolf Merkens

    (Kiel University)

  • Daniel Lincke

    (Global Climate Forum e.V. (GCF))

  • Jochen Hinkel

    (Global Climate Forum e.V. (GCF)
    Humboldt-University)

  • Sally Brown

    (University of Southampton
    Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)

  • Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis

    (Kiel University)

Abstract

Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on socioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal flood events under different population scenarios, that are consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); and different SLR scenarios, derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and analyse the effect of accounting for regionalised population dynamics on population exposure until 2100. In a reference approach, we use homogeneous population growth on national level. In the regionalisation approaches, we test existing spatially explicit projections that also account for urbanisation, coastal migration and urban sprawl. Our results show that projected global exposure in 2100 ranges from 100 million to 260 million, depending on the combination of SLR and population scenarios and method used for regionalising the population projections. The assessed exposure based on the regionalised approaches is higher than that derived from the reference approach by up to 60 million people (39%). Accounting for urbanisation and coastal migration leads to an increase in exposure, whereas considering urban sprawl leads to lower exposure. Differences between the reference and the regionalised approaches increase with higher SLR. The regionalised approaches show highest exposure under SSP5 over most of the twenty-first century, although total population in SSP5 is the second lowest overall. All methods project the largest absolute growth in exposure for Asia and relative growth for Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Ludolf Merkens & Daniel Lincke & Jochen Hinkel & Sally Brown & Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis, 2018. "Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 413-426, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:151:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2334-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2334-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    2. Jochen Hinkel & Robert Nicholls & Athanasios Vafeidis & Richard Tol & Thaleia Avagianou, 2010. "Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 703-719, October.
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    4. Jan-Ludolf Merkens & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2018. "Using Information on Settlement Patterns to Improve the Spatial Distribution of Population in Coastal Impact Assessments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Barbara Neumann & Athanasios T Vafeidis & Juliane Zimmermann & Robert J Nicholls, 2015. "Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-34, March.
    6. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Macías García & Fábio Ferreira Dias, 2024. "Future scenarios in the former oil capital: coastal flooding and social vulnerability in Macaé, RJ," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18625-18640, July.
    2. Strain, E.M.A. & Kompas, T. & Boxshall, A. & Kelvin, J. & Swearer, S. & Morris, R.L., 2022. "Assessing the coastal protection services of natural mangrove forests and artificial rock revetments," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Si Ha & Hirokazu Tatano & Nobuhito Mori & Toshio Fujimi & Xinyu Jiang, 2021. "Cost–benefit analysis of adaptation to storm surge due to climate change in Osaka Bay, Japan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Evelyn G. Shu & Jeremy R. Porter & Mathew E. Hauer & Sebastian Sandoval Olascoaga & Jesse Gourevitch & Bradley Wilson & Mariah Pope & David Melecio-Vazquez & Edward Kearns, 2023. "Integrating climate change induced flood risk into future population projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Sally Brown & Katie Jenkins & Philip Goodwin & Daniel Lincke & Athanasios T. Vafeidis & Richard S. J. Tol & Rhosanna Jenkins & Rachel Warren & Robert J. Nicholls & Svetlana Jevrejeva & Agustin Sanchez, 2021. "Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-21, July.

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