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Projected reductions in climatic suitability for vulnerable British birds

Author

Listed:
  • Dario Massimino

    (British Trust for Ornithology)

  • Alison Johnston

    (British Trust for Ornithology
    Cornell University
    University of Cambridge)

  • Simon Gillings

    (British Trust for Ornithology)

  • Frédéric Jiguet

    (Centre d’Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation UMR7204 Sorbonne Universités-MNHN-CNRS-UPMC CP135)

  • James W. Pearce-Higgins

    (British Trust for Ornithology
    University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Projections of species’ distributions in future climates can aid adaptive conservation strategies. Although presence-absence or presence-only data have been extensively used for this purpose, modelling changes in spatial patterns of abundance provides a more sensitive tool for estimating species’ vulnerabilities to climate impacts. We used abundance data from citizen science bird surveys in the UK and France to predict spatial patterns of future climatic suitability throughout Great Britain for 124 breeding bird species. We project that climatic suitability of Great Britain will increase for 44% of species and decline for 9% of species by 2080. Of the latter group, most are already red-listed for their severe long-term population declines. If our suitability projections translate into population changes, by 2080, conservation listing status will worsen for 10 species and improve for 28 species. Projected changes in climatic suitability translate into net gains of species abundance in northern and western areas and high turnover in community composition throughout Britain, particularly under medium- and high-emission scenarios. In conclusion, community-wide projections of changes in climatic suitability based on abundance indicate that bird assemblages throughout Great Britain will be impacted by climate change and that species already of concern are likely to be impacted hardest. Of the species projected to benefit, the ability of currently red-listed species to respond positively to climate without other interventions is unclear.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Massimino & Alison Johnston & Simon Gillings & Frédéric Jiguet & James W. Pearce-Higgins, 2017. "Projected reductions in climatic suitability for vulnerable British birds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 117-130, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:145:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2081-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2081-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Harte & Annette Ostling & Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig, 2004. "Climate change and extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    2. Baddeley, Adrian & Turner, Rolf, 2005. "spatstat: An R Package for Analyzing Spatial Point Patterns," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 12(i06).
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Sicacha-Parada & Diego Pavon-Jordan & Ingelin Steinsland & Roel May & Bård Stokke & Ingar Jostein Øien, 2022. "A Spatial Modeling Framework for Monitoring Surveys with Different Sampling Protocols with a Case Study for Bird Abundance in Mid-Scandinavia," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 562-591, September.

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