IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v145y2017i1d10.1007_s10584-017-2081-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected reductions in climatic suitability for vulnerable British birds

Author

Listed:
  • Dario Massimino

    (British Trust for Ornithology)

  • Alison Johnston

    (British Trust for Ornithology
    Cornell University
    University of Cambridge)

  • Simon Gillings

    (British Trust for Ornithology)

  • Frédéric Jiguet

    (Centre d’Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation UMR7204 Sorbonne Universités-MNHN-CNRS-UPMC CP135)

  • James W. Pearce-Higgins

    (British Trust for Ornithology
    University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Projections of species’ distributions in future climates can aid adaptive conservation strategies. Although presence-absence or presence-only data have been extensively used for this purpose, modelling changes in spatial patterns of abundance provides a more sensitive tool for estimating species’ vulnerabilities to climate impacts. We used abundance data from citizen science bird surveys in the UK and France to predict spatial patterns of future climatic suitability throughout Great Britain for 124 breeding bird species. We project that climatic suitability of Great Britain will increase for 44% of species and decline for 9% of species by 2080. Of the latter group, most are already red-listed for their severe long-term population declines. If our suitability projections translate into population changes, by 2080, conservation listing status will worsen for 10 species and improve for 28 species. Projected changes in climatic suitability translate into net gains of species abundance in northern and western areas and high turnover in community composition throughout Britain, particularly under medium- and high-emission scenarios. In conclusion, community-wide projections of changes in climatic suitability based on abundance indicate that bird assemblages throughout Great Britain will be impacted by climate change and that species already of concern are likely to be impacted hardest. Of the species projected to benefit, the ability of currently red-listed species to respond positively to climate without other interventions is unclear.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Massimino & Alison Johnston & Simon Gillings & Frédéric Jiguet & James W. Pearce-Higgins, 2017. "Projected reductions in climatic suitability for vulnerable British birds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 117-130, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:145:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2081-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2081-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2081-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-017-2081-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Harte & Annette Ostling & Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig, 2004. "Climate change and extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    2. Baddeley, Adrian & Turner, Rolf, 2005. "spatstat: An R Package for Analyzing Spatial Point Patterns," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 12(i06).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Sicacha-Parada & Diego Pavon-Jordan & Ingelin Steinsland & Roel May & Bård Stokke & Ingar Jostein Øien, 2022. "A Spatial Modeling Framework for Monitoring Surveys with Different Sampling Protocols with a Case Study for Bird Abundance in Mid-Scandinavia," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 562-591, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arii, Ken & Caspersen, John P. & Jones, Trevor A. & Thomas, Sean C., 2008. "A selection harvesting algorithm for use in spatially explicit individual-based forest simulation models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 211(3), pages 251-266.
    2. Václavík, Tomáš & Meentemeyer, Ross K., 2009. "Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3248-3258.
    3. Frank Davenport, 2017. "Estimating standard errors in spatial panel models with time varying spatial correlation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96, pages 155-177, March.
    4. Leandro, Camila & Jay-Robert, Pierre & Mériguet, Bruno & Houard, Xavier & Renner, Ian W., 2020. "Is my sdm good enough? insights from a citizen science dataset in a point process modeling framework," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 438(C).
    5. Andrew John & Avril Horne & Rory Nathan & Michael Stewardson & J. Angus Webb & Jun Wang & N. LeRoy Poff, 2021. "Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    6. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    7. Tasmin L. Rymer & Neville Pillay & Carsten Schradin, 2013. "Extinction or Survival? Behavioral Flexibility in Response to Environmental Change in the African Striped Mouse Rhabdomys," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Vijay Rajagopal & Gregory Bass & Cameron G Walker & David J Crossman & Amorita Petzer & Anthony Hickey & Ivo Siekmann & Masahiko Hoshijima & Mark H Ellisman & Edmund J Crampin & Christian Soeller, 2015. "Examination of the Effects of Heterogeneous Organization of RyR Clusters, Myofibrils and Mitochondria on Ca2+ Release Patterns in Cardiomyocytes," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-31, September.
    9. Alexander S Anderson & Collin J Storlie & Luke P Shoo & Richard G Pearson & Stephen E Williams, 2013. "Current Analogues of Future Climate Indicate the Likely Response of a Sensitive Montane Tropical Avifauna to a Warming World," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-12, July.
    10. Christoph Lambio & Tillman Schmitz & Richard Elson & Jeffrey Butler & Alexandra Roth & Silke Feller & Nicolai Savaskan & Tobia Lakes, 2023. "Exploring the Spatial Relative Risk of COVID-19 in Berlin-Neukölln," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-22, May.
    11. Abdollah Jalilian, 2017. "Modelling and classification of species abundance: a case study in the Barro Colorado Island plot," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(13), pages 2401-2409, October.
    12. Joyce Maschinski & Michael Ross & Hong Liu & Joe O’Brien & Eric Wettberg & Kristin Haskins, 2011. "Sinking ships: conservation options for endemic taxa threatened by sea level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(1), pages 147-167, July.
    13. Shakil Ahmad Romshoo & Jasia Bashir & Irfan Rashid, 2020. "Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1473-1491, October.
    14. Perez, Carlos & Roncoli, Carla & Neely, Constance & Steiner, Jean L., 2007. "Can carbon sequestration markets benefit low-income producers in semi-arid Africa? Potentials and challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 2-12, April.
    15. Eric Marcon & Florence Puech, 2012. "A typology of distance-based measures of spatial concentration," Working Papers halshs-00679993, HAL.
    16. Davies, Tilman M. & Jones, Khair & Hazelton, Martin L., 2016. "Symmetric adaptive smoothing regimens for estimation of the spatial relative risk function," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 12-28.
    17. James I Watling & David N Bucklin & Carolina Speroterra & Laura A Brandt & Frank J Mazzotti & Stephanie S Romañach, 2013. "Validating Predictions from Climate Envelope Models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-12, May.
    18. Kaushal, Kevin R. & Navrud, Ståle, 2018. "Global Biodiversity Costs of Climate Change. Improving the damage assessment of species loss in Integrated Assessment Models," Working Paper Series 4-2018, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business.
    19. Sillero, Neftalí & Campos, João Carlos & Arenas-Castro, Salvador & Barbosa, A.Márcia, 2023. "A curated list of R packages for ecological niche modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    20. Martín, Gerardo & Yáñez-Arenas, Carlos & Chiappa-Carrara, Xavier, 2022. "Discrepancies between point process models and environmental envelopes identify the niche centroid – geography configuration," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 469(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:145:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2081-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.